Bill Barr's first “opinion” as AG was in June 1989, where he reasoned the US President had the right to dispatch FBI agents abroad to arrest foreigners, even in violation of international treaties. The second document was issued as US forces geared up to invade Panama, gave a patina of legality to the president’s desire to use the military in similar overseas operations. Together, the two memos enshrine what has come to be known as the president’s “snatch authority.” Writing in the memo, Barr argued that both the president and, through him, the attorney general have an “inherent constitutional power” to authorize certain overseas operations, including abductions (going against provisions of the UN Charter), to fend off “serious threats” to domestic “security” from “international terrorist groups and narcotics traffickers.” When Congress first got wind of these astonishing theories, in November 1989, Barr insisted that they represented no policy change. Three years later, the U.S. Supreme Court took up the legality of that action, and the conservative majority approved it.
People sincerely seemed to believe that, simply by replacing Mubarak, Egypt’s multitudinous problems would be solved. No one really said how any of these problems would be solved, there was just a general assumption that they would be. You did not need a particularly active imagination to look at Egypt, a country with a poor, under-educated, unskilled, and rapidly growing population, and see the potential for trouble. In fact given the shambolic state of Egypt’s economy, its yawning religious cleavages, and the immaturity of its political institutions, it would have been nothing less than a miracle if the post-Mubarak iteration of the country hadn’t ended in total disaster. Few of the brave young men and women behind the Arab Spring have been willing to publicly admit the possibility of a link between their revolutions, which were organic and home-grown, had anything to do with the wars. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/23/the-cia-says-russia-hacked-the-u-s-election-here-are-6-things-to-learn-from-cold-war-attempts-to-change-regimes/ "In the Muslim world, ungoverned spaces will be exploited by Islamist extremist... the meltdown of a country caused such problems for our NATO allies in Europe that domestic populism was fuelled by the refugee crisis, which saw a tsunami of refugees going all the way into Europe, not just into the region; also the spread of violence and the collapse of a State." David Petraeus. "I urge Europe to do more. After WW2, it was Europeans seeking the world's assistance." Ban Ki-moon, 2009 Secretary-General of UN A tight-knit group closely linked by intermarriage as well as class and old school ties, these were men and women who spent much of their lives living and working in the Arab world as diplomats, military attachés, intelligence agents, scholar-adventurers, and teachers. As such, the Arabists exerted considerable influence both as career diplomats and as bureaucrats within the State Department from the early nineteenth century to the present. Robert D. Kaplan Qatar hosts the US’s biggest military air base in the region, while maintaining cordial relations with Iran; it held contacts with Israel while simultaneously backing the Palestinian group Hamas and Lebanon’s Hizbollah. Whether in terms of armaments or financial support for dissidents, diplomatic manoeuvring or lobbying, Qatar has been in the lead, readily disgorging its gas-generated wealth in the pursuit of the downfall of the House of Assad. After 2000 international agreements mandated that ships larger than 300 tons, and all passenger ships, carry and use AIS (Automated Identification System) at all times, to avoid collisions. Before AIS came along, most large ships carried (and still carry) INMARSAT, which enables shipping companies to keep track of their vessels. The original AIS only had a range of 20–35 kilometres, but by 2006 space satellites were developed that could track AIS transmissions worldwide. These could be, and were, tracked by satellite, but it was more difficult. , no matter where they are on the planet. After most sanctions were lifted in 2015 Iran continued to smuggle weapons by sea, using the same deceptions it employed to try and get around the oil export ban. The difference was that most of the ships Iran used for the arms smuggling were small enough (under 300 tons) that they were not legally required to carry an electronic radio beacon aka AIS transponder. Iran had an easier time concealing arms smuggling because they could use smaller ships to Shia rebels in Yemen, and small ships are not required to use AIS. Oil smuggling is another matter as large ships (tankers) are used, and they are easier to spot from orbital space (or by recon aircraft and UAVs). Syria says U.S. oil firm signed deal with Kurdish-led rebels: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN24Y0MI/ Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab oil states feel threatened by a militant Iran. Breaking the axis between Syria and Iran has been a major goal of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Arab petro-sheikhdoms since the 1980s. The encirclement of Syria and Lebanon has long been in the works. Since 2001, Washington and NATO have started the process of cordoning off Lebanon and Syria. The permanent NATO presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Syrian Accountability Act are part of this initiative. NATO has been reorienting itself towards asymmetrical warfare, and greater emphasis is now being put on intelligence operations. It appears that this road-map is based on a 1996 Israeli document aimed at controlling Syria. The 1996 Israeli document, which included prominent U.S. policy figures as authors, calls for “rolling back Syria”, outlines pushing the Syrians out of Lebanon, diverting the attention of Damascus by using an anti-Syrian opposition in Lebanon, and then destabilizing Syria with the help of both Jordan and Turkey. De-linking Syria from Iran and unhinging the Resistance Bloc that Damascus and Tehran have formed has been one of the objectives of the foreign-supported anti-government militias inside Syria. This includes preventing the Iran-Iraq-Syria energy terminal from being built and ending the military pact between the two partners. Syrian oil is known as “light crude” and can be burned for heating or cooking as it comes out of the ground. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN24Y0MI/ Such a schism between Damascus and Tehran would change the Middle East’s strategic balance in favour of the US and Israel. The Turks have never got on well with the Assads, especially since the 1980s, when the Assads became allies with Iran (because both Iran and the Assads were Shia and both were enemies of the Sunni minority dictatorship in Iraq that was then led by Saddam Hussein). The Assads are trying to back out of their long (since the 1980s) alliance with Iran and have the backing of Russia for that. Israel believes the Assads are hostile to a permanent Iranian presence because that might lead to an Israeli invasion, which would give the Syrian rebels a boost. To further complicate the matter, the Turks want to eliminate all armed Kurdish groups west of the Euphrates River. Actually, the Turks don’t want any autonomous Kurds in northern Syria and neither does the Iran backed Syrian government. Turkey wants to create a security zone on the Syrian side of the border that has no Kurds or Islamic terrorists in it. Turkey is willing to play diplomatic games with Russia and Iran to achieve these goals, as well as send troops into Syria to fight, and get killed. Russia notes that Turkey is selling weapons to Ukraine. The wars that flared in the late 19th century, including the seismic Russo-Turkish war of 1877-1878 and the later Balkan wars that preceded World War. It also led to massive population displacements; the exodus of Christian, Jewish, and Muslim refugees in various directions; and the collapse of the fragile cosmopolitanism that once characterized parts of the Ottoman Empire, especially its port cities. The Turks also remember earlier in the 19th century, when Russian campaigns in the Caucasus and secured major lands north of the Black Sea, in what is now modern-day Ukraine, and huge tracts of territory by the Caspian Sea The lands around the Black Sea saw the massacre and mass deportations of populations of Turkic Muslims. They remember that Britain looked the other way. And, worse still, the British Empire allied itself with Persia - the Ottoman's enemy - rather than supporting Istanbul in its fight against Imperial Russia. It worked in the other direction, as well. Most infamously, as World War I raged, the Ottomans carried out mass deportations and killings of the empire's Armenians, the vast majority of whom lived in what is now central and eastern Turkey. Countless Armenians were executed, raped and forced into grim death marches into the desert. Obama administration pursued 3 tracks in Syria. However, the US policy-makers were able to sabotage the success of each other. In 2015, the CIA was involved in a billion-dollar program to back Syrian rebels from both Jordan and Turkey. But US failed to corral rebel groups into a workable force. Instead, the rebels were a plethora of groups, many of them infiltrated by increasing religious extremism and infighting. Thus the CIA program to support the rebels fell apart. The US State Department also continued to back a Turkey, a US NATO ally, track in Syria. Turkey told US that they could win ISIS capital of Raqqa but there was no plan or evidence of it. US had also entered Syria to support the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) to fight ISIS. Through Central Command it helped create the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – the military counterpart of the SDC – based on the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) to help encourage Kurds and other groups, such as Arabs and Christians, to all join under one banner to fight ISIS. US has paid $2 billion to buy soviet weapons from Eastern Europe and offered them to Kurdish forces. US DoD officially allocated $500 million & $300 million for 2018 & 2019 budget for training SDF forces. It was Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who finally were able to liberated Raqqa from ISIS in 2017. With SDF gaining success against ISIS, Turkey, accused US of “training a terror army” in Syria. In December 2017, Turkey helped create the Syrian National Army or Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army, a collection of Syrian rebel groups. It wanted to use them to fight the Kurds that were backed by the US. In 2018, Turkey signed a deal with Russia, which allowed Turkey to invaded Afrin and forced 160,000 Kurds to flee. Trump administration responded to Turkey’s flirtation with Russia by bringing in former US ambassador James Jeffrey, who was known to be pro-Turkey. Appointed in 2018, he immediately told Turkish media that any US role in helping Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to fight ISIS was “temporary, tactical and transactional.” At the same time, however, US military officials told the SDF that US would stay to stabilize eastern Syria. Turkey got the Trump administration to agree to withdraw from Syria in December 2018. The goal was to win back Turkey. Russia’s military and diplomats don’t work against each other. They work to sell S-400s to Turkey – while also supporting the Syrian regime, while also being open to talks with the SDC, while also acknowledging Turkey’s views. As US withdrew in October 2019, the Russians swept in for another victory. Just as they had brokered deals in Idlib and Afrin, they now brokered a deal to “save” the Kurdish cities of Qamishli, Kobani and Derik from invasion by Turkish-backed Syrian rebel extremists. The US may have undermined its own successful anti-ISIS partners to appease Turkey – and ending up not getting anything out of it, losing eastern Syria, losing regional confidence in US policy, losing the Iran arms embargo and also letting Turkey get Russia’s S-400s. Seth J. Frantzman Dealing with Iran has been a headache for Turkey for centuries. The two most powerful Moslem nations in the Middle East (Turkey and Saudi Arabia) are at odds over how to deal with Syria and Iran. It works like this. For over 500 years (until the end of World War I in 1918) Turkey ruled most of the Middle East as the Ottoman Empire. This job was never popular with many Turks, who considered the Arabs troublesome subjects and not really worth the effort. So when the Turkish Empire was dissolved and a republic declared (for what is now Turkey), most Turks embraced the new arrangement. Turkey renounced its leadership of Islam and declared itself a secular state (that was composed mostly of Moslems, plus some Christians and Jews). In the wake of that Turkish reform the Arab states became independent (after a decade or two of French and British colonial rule). After World War II (1939-45) rapidly growing demand for oil (which Arabia had lots of) made many Arab states (especially Saudi Arabia) quite rich. The Saud family had taken over most of Arabia in the 1920s and formed a kingdom for the express purpose of safeguarding the primary Moslem holy places in Mecca and Medina. The Saudi royalty tried to use this to become the leader of Islam but found that most Moslems politely ignored them. There was no denying the huge oil reserves (the largest in the world) the Saudis had, and gradually that became quite a lot of power. While the Turks and Saudis (and about 80% of Moslems) were Sunni, the Iranians (and 10% of Moslems) belonged to the Shia sect (which conservative Sunnis considered heretics). In the 1980s Shia clerics in Iran managed to form a religious dictatorship and proclaimed a worldwide Islamic revolution (which most of the word, including Moslems, ignored). The Shia clerics in Iran saw themselves as more worthy guardians of the most holy religious sites in Mecca and Media. The Saudis, and most Moslems, did not agree. The Iranians are still at it and are being quietly supported by Turkey (a traditional and ancient enemy). Although Turkey has been ruled by a moderate Sunni Islamic party for the last decade, the Turks don’t feel they should take sides in some Sunni-Shia conflict. Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab oil states feel threatened by a militant Iran. Turkey sees itself as the only adult power in the region and deserving of resuming a major leadership role (without the old imperial burden of actually administering and policing all the people in the region). The Arabs are not keen on this, as they have bitter memories of the harsh Turkish rule. There’s also the ethnic factor. Islam was created by Arabs and while all Moslems are supposed to be equal, many devout Arab Moslems believe they should be a bit more equal. The Turks are trying to demonstrate their new statesmanship by achieving peace in Syria without enraging the Iranians or handing Syria over to Islamic terrorists. At the same time the so-called Free Syrian Army and other NATO-GCC front organizations are also using Turkish and Jordanian territory to stage raids into Syria. According to the Turkish and Lebanese media, France had sent its military trainers into Turkey and Lebanon to prepare conscripts against Syria. The Saudis feel the Turks don’t know what they are dealing with. The Syrian rebels would appreciate some more Turkish help in overthrowing the current pro-Iranian Syrian government. However, the move had been opposed from the outset by Germany and Scandinavian countries as well as by Baroness Ashton, the British head of EU foreign affairs. "There is no shortage of arms in Syria," said Jean Asselborn, the Luxembourger Foreign Minister. The Turks are reluctant to get too directly involved lest Arabs get upset over a return of the old Turkish (Ottoman) Empire in the form of Turkish troops in Syria. Currently the Turks feel the Syrian government will eventually fall. The Arabs would prefer to see this happen sooner rather than later. But, unlike the Turks (who have one of the two, next to Israel, most powerful military forces in the region) the Arabs are unable to just march in and overthrow the Syrian government. This rankles the Arabs but it’s just the way things are (and have been for a long time). Turkey, which has and could again dominate the region, doesn’t want to do it via force. Iran, which wants to turn all of the Middle East into part of its new Islamic empire, doesn’t have the military might to do this. Decades of sanctions have left Iranian forces weak, which is why Iran is so eager to have nuclear weapons. The Arab states have not been a major military power for over 600 years and are nowhere near to regaining the power they had in the distant past. Reality, resentments, and unrealistic aspirations all conspire to create what passes for politics in the Middle East. All this misdirection and posturing also tends to give the Islamic terrorists a free ride and a degree of sanctuary. For centuries it was customary to shelter rebels and terrorists from neighboring states and try to use these zealots as one of your own diplomatic and military tools. The more lucid zealots figured out how this went and sort-of went along. Think of it as another local tradition that just won’t go away. But the break-up of Syria's opposition, got splintered into hundreds of armed groups, and worsens the dilemma faced by the West as they arm rebels which ends up in the hands of hostile Islamist militants. The head of the Islamic State of Iraq, announcement that al Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq had also formally merging with Nusra to form the ISIL. He had financial support from private donors in Arab Gulf countries and from al Qaeda's global support network. Perhaps Saudi Arabia and Qatar were looking to create oil and gas pipelines through Syria to the Mediterranean and beyond into Europe in order to muscle into Russia's energy market. Moreover, Turkey and Israel play a major strategic role in "protecting" the Mediterranean transport and pipeline corridor. US and SDF forces (Syrian Democratic Forces, predominantly Kurdish rebels) expand and improve their fortifications in southeastern Deir Zor province, specifically the new U.S. base at the al Omar oilfield. The Assads want this but the Americans are backing Kurdish efforts to hold on to al Omar and the valuable oil it can produce. Americans are building smaller bases in the nearby Koniko and al Jafreh oilfields. These three oil fields produced over 300,000 barrels a day before the civil war began in 2011 and was a major source of foreign currency for buying foreign goods. After seven years of fighting the oil fields only produce about 20,000 barrels a day and control of these oil fields puts the Syrian Kurds in a strong bargaining position. Syria says U.S. oil firm signed deal with Kurdish-led rebels: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN24Y0MI/ These oilfields were operated (before 2011) by Alawites (the minority the Assads belong to). The Assads want the oil fields back. So do the Russians, who have the contract (from the Assads) to rehabilitate the oil fields and operate them. In the northwest Turkish forces have taken the Kurdish held town of Afrin and despite efforts of Syrian forces to interfere Turkey announced that it will retain control of Afrin. Now the Turks are preparing to move 100 kilometers to the east and take Manbij (northeast of Aleppo city, 40 kilometers south of the Turkish border and near the west bank of the Euphrates River). The Turks insist that they are going to control the Syrian side of the border from the Euphrates River west to the Mediterranean but have apparently have an understanding with the US that will allow the SDF (SDF fighters in Manbij are Arabs, not Kurds.) and US forces to remain in Manbij as long as all the SDF fighters in Manbij (and west of the Euphrates) are non-Kurds. The Russians want an end to the 7 years of fighting but it is now in conflict with Iranian plans to attack Israel. The Iranian goal is for perpetuating the rule of the minority Alawite Shias in Syria, so that Syrian soil can be used. Russia is trying to convince Iran that the Israelis are really, really serious about getting Iranian forces out of Syria. Israel demands this. Turkey agrees with it and the Assads would prefer that. Iranian mercenaries are the key to whatever combat capabilities the Assad forces have. This is why the Assads also want Iran to withdraw its forces once all the rebel forces are destroyed, disarmed or otherwise neutralized. Otherwise the Iranian led mercenaries will be the real power in Syria. This is how Iran created Hezbollah in Lebanon since the 1980s. What this comes down to is the fact that Iran is a foreign (Indo-European, not Arab) power that wants to increase its direct control over Syria. The Assads depend on both Iran and Russia for the unexpected comeback from certain defeat. Iran has been backing Assad since the 1980s while the Russians largely stopped supplying Assads with much material aid after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. The Russians returned in 2015 and the air and tech support put the Assads on the road to victory. But now Russia is siding with Israel on the issue of Iranian efforts to take control of Syria. While Tehran’s allies in Damascus have been weighed down, its allies in Iraq have not. After Syria, the same conglomerate of countries working against Damascus will turn their attention to Iraq. They have already started working to galvanize Iraq further on the basis of its sectarian and political fault lines. Turkey, and the Sunni Muslim countries - Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are playing prominent roles in this objective. Qatar was dominate during the Syrian uprising. In the years before the Arab uprisings, Qatar had cultivated its role as a mediator, capable of talking to all sides on the divisions that polarised the Middle East. Qatar has rapidly become a major power broker across the MENA (Middle East/North Africa) region. Ironically, although the relationship between Riyadh and Doha has long been characterised by mutual suspicion, in many ways they have worked very closely on Syria. What makes this interesting is that Turkey and Iran are traditional enemies of Russia, while Israel and the Gulf Arabs are not. Russians focused on the Arab Spring’s potential for economic disruption, religious conflict, and generalized political chaos. Russia is trying to project power to deter a Libya-style intervention in Syria. The port of Tartus is Russia's only remaining military outpost outside the former Soviet Union. Terrorists are good at defending a specific area using anti-tank missiles and at using air-defenses against low flying aircrafts, helicopters and UAVs; but militants don't use UAVs for coordinating artillery units or conduct electronic warfare operations. On February 7th, advance by Russian and Syrian forces was quickly repulsed by U.S. firepower. The Russian force had no air support or anti-aircraft weapons and no backup plan other than for the survivors to retreat as quickly as possible. The Russians were hoping to push American troops out of a base near oil fields east of the Euphrates. While there are only about two thousand U.S. troops in Syria there are more than five times as many providing support from nearby airbases and even more distant facilities, including intel and other analysts back in the U.S. but on call 24/7 via satellite comms. The Russian force suffered heavy losses which included about 200 Russian military contractors (perhaps Wagner Group). The (Prince Corporation machinery & auto-parts manufacturer) Michigan industrialist Edgar Prince's son and brother of Donald's secretary of education Betsy DeVos is Erik Prince (with Cerberus Investment & Management Co. owner of billionaire Stephen Feinberg who also for $30 million owns DynCorp International) is the owner of Virginia based ACADEMI (also called Xe Services, formerly Blackwater Worldwide) with merged with Reston based Triple Canopy to form Constellis Holdings private Co. mercenaries. The company's reputation was badly damaged after several Blackwater guards shot and killed numerous unarmed Iraqi civilians in a Baghdad traffic circle in 2007. It is supply and demand. After the Iraq fiasco, he went into self-exile, working for his UAE private firm also helped recruit a battalion of 1,000 specialized troops hired mostly from Latin America countries to fight for UAE in Yemen. UAE Prince also ran an operation for the Emirati government using South African mercenaries to train Somalis to fight pirates. In 2011, Erik Prince helped crown prince Abu Dhabi Sheik Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan raise a secret private army in the desert for $529 million. He worked with China in eastern Africa such as South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia and the DRC. Erik Prince also created Frontier Services Group (FSG), formerly known as DVN Holdings, security training & logistics (owned by Hong Kong’s 49th-richest entrepreneur Johnson Chun Shun Ko) in partnership with Chinese state-owned conglomerate CITIC Guoan Construction. Erik Prince received assistance from Chinese intelligence to set up an account for his Libya operations through the Bank of China. Frontier Services Group also has four aircraft, trucking, and logistic companies: Maleth Aero Limited, a Malta-based air operation company, Transit Freight Forwarding (Pty) Ltd, a logistics company based in South Africa, Phoenix Aviation Limited, a Kenya-based air operations company, and Cheetah Logistics SARL a DRC-based trucking operation. It is a truth universally acknowledged by every war correspondent, humanitarian aid worker and Western diplomat: Some wars, like Syria’s, receive tremendous public attention, which can translate into pressure for resolution. But many others, like Yemen’s still raging but much ignored conflict, do not. Journalist Alfred Hackensberger of Die Welt visited the fighting front in and around Aleppo during the summer of 2013 and talked with two Nusra Front fighters who recalled seeing the same canisters being carried by rebel troops, although they weren't sure whether they were from Nusra Front or their allies Liwa al-Tawhid. They confirmed to Hackensberger that the munitions were smoke grenades, not chemical weapons. In Aleppo, Hackensberger found two more Nusra Front fighters who recognized the canister and showed him and his photographer other canisters of the same type. They, too, told Hackensberger they were smoke grenades, and that they came from Syrian Army depots that Nusra Front had captured. Sarin is not suited to being deployed in hand-thrown canisters and would not leave marks next to the hole in the canister whereas a smoke grenade would. After the Sheikh Maqsood attack, neighbors who entered the home in which two children died described "smelling a sharp, bitter odor that stung their eyes." Sarin, by contrast, is an essentially odorless gas. The symptoms reported by survivors and eyewitnesses — blurred vision, difficulty breathing, foaming at the mouth, nausea, vomiting, loss of consciousness, and convulsions — are not unique to exposure to Sarin. Daesh also had used mustard gas since 2015. Sarin gas is five hundred times more effective than Cyanide. Russia had made a deal to clear all chemical weapons from Syrian government. Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin was happy to help Obama avoid invading his Syrian ally. Syria surrendered its entire chemical stockpile in 2013 to the UN. UN inspectors already in Syria investigating earlier alleged Khan al-Assal chemical attack, confirmed Syria was struck by rockets containing large amount of sarin similar to Al-Ghouta in 2013, targeting civilian-inhabited areas, causing mass casualties. These were rockets with improvised nerve agent sarin were again used to target the suburbs in Damascus. Since all known chemical weapons can be identified relatively easily, Assad had immediately called for a UN investigation of the Nusra Front members who were caught in the possession of 2.2 kgs of sarin chemicals by Turkey but later they have all since disappeared. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-22720647 A Turkish colonel stressed that it is “crazy” to think that the Turkish state would hand over chemical weapons to the al Nusra Front to make the Assad regime look bad. However, there were officials well aware of Obama's "red line" on chemical weapons as a potential route to drawing the US into the war against Assad, was motivated to "falsify" the samples that found their way into French government hands. "We now know it was a covert action planned by Erdogan's people to push Obama" who “believed they could get Assad’s nuts in a vice by dabbling with a sarin attack inside Syria and forcing Obama to make good on his red line threat.” US intelligence community did not share its fears to the media of Turkey’s role in the alleged chemical attack. British intelligence with the cooperation of Russian military intelligence, whose operatives had recovered samples of the chemical agent from the earlier Al-Ghouta attack, which they then analysed and passed it on to British military intelligence; and which MI6 passed on to the Americans under the data-exchange programme of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Due to Russian cooperation the US Defense Intelligence Agency knew definitively the composition of each batch of Soviet-manufactured chemical weapons involved in the attack. Officials further noted that the evidence lacking in credibility for the alleged chemical attacks (high probability of samples were contaminated during custody or false positives) and it did not confirm the accusation that they were carried out by the Syrian government. "They were homemade rockets". CIA, in an effort to circumvent US laws, took the support of MI6, for sending equipment from Gaddafi’s arsenals into Syria. Obama administration officials concluded the missiles were carrying riot-control tear gas similar to used by U.S. forces for decades, hence Obama, didn't want to pursue this anymore and call off the U.S strike on Syria, using the excuse that he needed congressional approval. Obama, in other words, was now trapped and the Republicans were eager to expose his administration’s disarray on the matter. Turkey's Erdogan was profoundly angry at the unsteady support he has been receiving from the U.S. government in their joint efforts to eliminate Bashar al-Assad. John Kerry said, when responding to aid workers at a donor conference for anti-Assad forces, “What do you want me to do? Go to war with Russia? Is that what you want?” Whereas Erdogan, has been able to play EU and Russia against one another. Did American bombs kill Russian troops in Syria? Syrian fighters and few Russian military contractors came from the village of Tabiya and attacked the SDF base. Russian military officials said they had no control over the fighters assembling near the river. A total of more than 200 of the attackers died, including 10 to 20 Russian mercenaries. A staffer at the only major hospital in Deir ez-Zor would later say that around a dozen Russian bodies were delivered. The Russians in Tabiya just had the bad luck of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Defense Secretary James Mattis is reported to have called the incident “perplexing.” The only verifiable sources for the decimation of hundreds of Russians are the photos and videos circulating on the internet. Some of them show footage from eastern Ukraine that was later doctored. For the Russians, of course, the ‘Middle East’ is not in the ‘east’ at all, but to the south of Moscow; and statistics are all-important. The Chechen capital of Grozny is scarcely 500 miles from the Syrian frontier. 15% of Russians are Muslim. Six of the Soviet Union’s communist republics had a Muslim majority, 90% of whom were Sunni. And Sunnis around the world make-up perhaps 85% of all Muslims. For a Russia intent on re-positioning itself across a land mass that includes most of the former Soviet Union, Sunni Islamists of the kind now fighting the Assad regime are its principal antagonists. Russia is deeply invested in the survival of the Assad regime, if not Assad himself. The Russians favour a national unity govt. Russia also benefits from the fact that Turkey is 'messing up' NATO internally. Russia main goal is to maintain its two bases (area of influence) and that is possible if the Assad regime (which granted the use of an airbase and port facilities) survives. Russia, which supplies lots of oil and gas to Europe, would be affected by any Saudi pipelines through Syria to the Mediterranean. The Russian aircraft maintainers made it possible for Russian warplanes to fly 39,000 sorties (an average of 36 a day) that, according to Russian estimates, killed at least 86,000 enemy personnel. These airstrikes were delivered mainly by Russian jets and helicopters at first, but soon the refurbished Syrian Air Force warplanes (which had suffered 70% losses since 2011) were carrying out a lot more airstrikes. On some days there are nearly a hundred air strikes. Russian warplanes are carrying out 50-60 air strikes a day. That was far more than the U.S. led air coalition. The Russian aircraft in Syria initially consisted of Su-34 and Su-30 fighter-bombers, Su-24M bombers and Su-25 ground attack aircraft, as well as about a dozen armed helicopters. There are also many transport helicopters. Russia brought in several thousand of their Spetsnaz (special operations) troops, both as active duty Russian army operators and former Spetsnaz serving as contractors. Russia also sent expert snipers who mainly served as instructors for Syrian Army snipers. Cuban troops were also reported in Syria, brought in to help train and assist Syrian troops. In mid-2018, Russia revealed that they had sent 63,012 troops to Syria since mid-2015. Over a third of the Russian troops and contractors were technical experts to assist the Syrians in refurbishing overworked weapons and military equipment. Russia also revealed that 41 percent of the Russian troops in Syria were officers and that seven percent of the troops sent were “artillery specialists”. Russian civilians in Syria were engineers and other specialists from Russian defense firms that were developing and manufacturing the most modern Russian weapons. In Syria, the Russian private security contractors mainly guarded these Russian bases. By the end of 2017 there were about 1,200 military contractors from the Wagner Group. Russians also had shipped in lots of ammo along with the new parts. The Russians also brought in UAVs and electronic monitoring equipment, and because of that provided a much better picture of where the best targets were. Russian UAVs were providing target information, and the Syrian infantry seemed more precise and confident as they called in supporting artillery and air support before advancing. Another advantage was that the Russians brought in lots of badly needed medical supplies and equipment, as well as medical personnel. By early 2018 Russian casualties (not counting contractors) in Syria continued to be remarkably low. Russia sold advanced Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles to Syrian President Bashar Assad, outfitted with an advanced guidance system that makes them more effective than the older version of the missile Russia sold to Syria. Syria had ordered the coastal defense version of the Yakhont system from Russia in 2007 and received the first units in early 2011. Russia sent at least a dozen warships to its Tartus naval base in Syria, in a move partly meant to send a message to Israel and the West not to intervene militarily in the country. Russia also decided to provide advanced, long-range S-300 air defence weapons to Syria, to prevent even a limited no-fly zone far more risky for US pilots. Russia has insisted that it is within its rights to keep arming the regime, as there are no UN resolutions prohibiting this. It is the Syrian regime's air defences, overhauled and upgraded with Russian help, which have been a powerful deterrent against the West declaring a "no-fly zone" or “humanitarian corridor” stretching up to 40km into Syria (as it is called in US/NATO doublespeak) of the type which, after it became a bombing campaign, brought down Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. For the first time, all of America’s ‘friends’ in the region are Sunni-Wahabi Islamists (who killed thousands of Americans on 11th September 2011) and all of its enemies are Shiites. The slow bleeding of Syria has other interested parties that want to smash the country and its society into pieces. Suncor Energy helped produce oil for export from Libya, but in Syria produces “light crude” energy for local consumption for heating or cooking. In reality, hostile governments are letting these companies to stay, because they siphon money out of Syria. They want to prevent any money from going in, while they want to also drain the local economy as a catalyst to internal implosion in Syria. There is also clamouring for steps to be taken to de-link Hezbollah, and by extension Iran, from its Christian allies in Lebanon. The German Marshall Fund showcased a text essentially saying that the Lebanese Christians that are allies to Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran need to be presented with an alternative political narrative to replace the one where they believe that Iran will ultimately run the Middle East as a great power. Israel mounted an airstrike in 2013 that reportedly destroyed a weapons convoy leaving a Syrian army depot near the Lebanese border, widely seen as a warning to Damascus. Another of the region’s supreme ironies is that Hamas, supposedly the ‘super-terrorists’ of Gaza, have abandoned Damascus and now support the Gulf Arabs’ desire to crush Assad. Israeli airstrikes inside Syria have targeted missiles believed to be from Tehran and bound for Hezbollah. There was a lot of opposition to sending some prisoners back to their own country, because these guys are often wanted there for terrorist activity. The Saudis believed that their rehab program was been a success. However, the Saudis continue to have problems with "rehabilitated" terrorists returning to terror. Saudi Arabia announced that at least 14 of the 117 Saudis released from Guantanamo Bay had returned to terrorist activities. At that point there were still 22 Saudis at Guantanamo Bay, along with about 201 other hard core terrorists. Saudi Arabia said it would either rehabilitate, or keep jailed, those released from Guantanamo Bay. Thus the admission that 14 of these men returned to terrorism (and 11 are still on the loose) was embarrassing. In early 2009, it was revealed that 14% of the 534 Guantanamo prisoners released so far from had returned to terrorist activities. This was not a big surprise, except for the extent of the recidivism. There had long been reports of men released from Guantanamo backsliding. As of 2019, there were still 40 prisoners at Guantanamo. The problem with the 223 remaining Guantanamo prisoners was that, you had to send these men somewhere. ISIL was created largely by Saddam era administrators and technocrats who had run the Iraqi branch of al Qaeda in an unsuccessful effort to regain control of the country. While this effort was defeated many key people, and a lot of cash got away. The Iraqi al Qaeda were not welcome in Syria but set up shop and formed a new “baddest of the bad” group called ISIL. By early 2018 ISIL had reorganized its media operations by getting some key people out of Syria and Iraq and then setting up an operation that could collect and widely distribute Internet based media produced by half a dozen smaller ISIL “franchises” in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. But the new organization was much less productive. The key to crippling ISIL as an organization were those leaders responsible for finance, logistics and media. Decapitation tactics work and while the tactic is ancient they have become more common in irregular warfare because of new technology. These were harder to replace and the senior ISIL leaders knew that success at raising huge amounts of cash (mainly via looting and smuggling, but also extortion and ransoms paid to free kidnapping victims and slaves) and maintaining effective communications for the finance and recruiting operations were more important. The logistics included obtaining weapons and explosives and moving them to where they would be most effective. ISIL would often deny accurate reports of their key people dying or being captured in order to maintain morale. This had been perfected and proven in Iraq before U.S. troops left in 2011 and earlier in Israel where it was developed to deal with the Palestinian terror campaign that began in 2000. The Israelis were very successful with their decapitation program, which within five years reduced Israeli civilian terrorist deaths from over 400 a year to less than ten. The Israeli and American decapitation tactics adapted to the techniques and tactics of current Islamic terrorism. American troops have used them many times in the past (in World War II, 1960s Vietnam, the Philippines over a century ago, and in 18th century colonial America) but tend to forget after a generation or so. Some things had to be relearned. That civilians are also killed is nothing new. During the allied invasion of France in 1944, the several months of fighting required to destroy the German armies in France also left 15,000 French civilians dead in the invasion area and more than that in the rest of France. The Germans did not normally try and hide among civilians, while Islamic terrorists do. The Germans knew they would be attacked no matter where they were. Islamic terrorists do sometimes get away because of the successful use of human shields (and because the order to fire is not given). This attitude ignores the civilians who die because terrorists escape to keep killing. Turkey wants to clear all Kurdish separatists and from the Syrian side of the border and turn that “security zone” over to the Free Syrian Army rebels (working for the Turks). Idlib is the last major stronghold for rebels but given the high concentration of Islamic terrorists and radical Moslems among the Idlib population, no Moslem country (especially Turkey and Lebanon) want them. Aside from sealing their border the Turks are not interested in Idlib and leaving to the Assad forces to take back control of the province. The Turks won’t risk their own ground forces in Idlib but apparently won’t mind if Iranian mercenaries go in and do the dirty work. The rebels in Idlib are also not united. However, ISIL is a minority in Idlib and hated by all other rebels. This is a “kill zone” because the Sunni Arabs crowded into Idlib have nowhere to go. That’s what traditionally happens to “The Unwanted” in this part of the world. A major operation against the active Islamic terror groups in Idlib is not likely right now because Iran is distracted with Israel. Meanwhile Turkey is using that access to supplies to gain the cooperation of more rebel groups. While weapons and reinforcements are no longer getting into Idlib from Turkey, food and other essential supplies are and the Turks can cut that off if any of the Idlib rebels cause problems. "It (ISIL) is not the sort of thing that you defeat even if you take away the geography they once owned. It's an idea that is gotta be defeated and that's much stronger and much more difficult and takes longer." Jim Mattis Fact: Italian ‘Ndrangheta mafia is peddling tramadol tablets for ISIS and Boko Haram fighters. They end up in the hands of the desperate in Gaza, the prostitutes in Amman, and child laborers in Turkey. In Europe and North Africa, peddling the pills, which have a street value of around $5 a piece, is fast becoming one of the Calabrian ‘Ndrangheta crime syndicate’s most successful enterprises. Most of the illegal goods are hidden in shipments of pineapples, frozen fish and coconut milk, which often are rushed through because of their shorter shelf life. Myth: Muslim nations have not taken in the refugees. In reality, if all the refugees is taken in, totally, will increase only 1% of the population of Europe. In fact, even though they are not as rich or capable, they have taken in most of the refugees. Jordan has warned that Syrian refugees are likely to make up 40% of his country's population by the middle of next year, with similar numbers predicted for Lebanon. Why are Syrians leaving their homes?
Myth: Migrants or refugees are breeding at high rate and can become the majority. https://www.asrc.org.au/pdf/myths-facts-solutions-info_.pdf
To prevent a human tragedy of epic proportions, Germany generously accepted nearly one million escaping Syrians, only to find that an earlier "Russian speaking" emigration (Volga Germans) was suddenly claiming that the new emigrants were essentially “thieves and rapists.” The whole mess threatened to cause a polarization in Germany’s politics deep enough to provoke the return of old unwanted ghosts.
The Islamic terrorists have allies among the rural Sunni Arab tribes out there and expect that, and continued access to the large ISIL cash stash, will allow them to conduct a forever war against the Assads, the Kurds and any foreign troops they encounter. HTS is a coalition of many of the factions of terror group in Idlib. Many HTS terrorists do have a history of working with Turkey. Many HTS terrorists do have a history of working with Turkey and the many factions never trust each other. Many Turks also oppose any pro-terrorist policy but the current Turkish government is controlled by an Islamic party that favors “cooperation” with some Islamic terror groups to protect Turks from the more rabid Islamic terrorists. Syria used to play this game and it did not work out well. Turkey feels this is the best choice in a bad situation. Turkey also has to worry about more than 3 million Syrian refugees (about 3.6 million) inside Turkey. Historically the Turks and Arabs don’t like each other much. https://www.justsecurity.org/77043/toward-a-true-account-of-collateral-damage-in-u-s-military-operations/ https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2011-08-12/attacking-the-messenger-how-the-cia-tried-to-undermine-drone-study https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1928963 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2129860
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Being ready is not what matters. What matters is winning after you get there.
The ‘Poor Fellow-Soldiers of Christ and the Temple of Solomon,’ more commonly known as the Knights Templar, or the Templars, was one of the most renowned military orders during the Middle Ages. The source of their fame came not only from their prowess on the battlefield, but also from the wealth they amassed during the Crusades. Additionally, they were exempted from all taxation. By the turn of the 14th century, the Knights Templars had established a system of castles, churches and banks throughout Western Europe. The Templar quickly became one of the richest and most influential groups of the Middle Ages. King Philip IV of France was known for his arrogance, cunning and ruthlessness. In 1307, secret letters were sent by King Philip IV of France, an avaricious monarch who in the preceding years had launched attacks on the Lombards (banking group) and France’s Jews who he had expelled, so he could confiscate their property. It has been claimed that, The French king, was heavily in debt to the Templars due to his war with the English, and he was eyeing the wealth of the Templars for himself. More than 600 Templars were arrested, including Grand Master Jacques de Molay, and the Order’s treasurer. So too were hundreds of non-warriors who managed the day-to-day banking and who were responsible for the administration of the Order’s worldly possessions. In 1314, almost seven years after the Templars were first arrested throughout France, and top-ranking Knights were burned to death as heretics in Paris. The king, however, would not enjoy his new-found wealth for long, as he died less than a year after, on the 29th of November 1314.
Prologue: Long before the Mongol invasion in 1237 to 1240 and the formation of the Russian Empire, the first raids by the Rus began in 860 against the Byzantine Empire. These raids went on until 1043. Peter the Great was also no stranger to raiding operations in wartime. Hundreds of years later, during the latter years of the Great Northern War, Russian galley fleets with thousands of raiders successfully attacked Sweden, including Gotland, Uppland, and the Stockholm archipelago. It was only in the second half of the 17th century, and as a consequence of incessant fighting among Poles, Muscovites, Ottoman Turks, Crimean Tatars, and Ukrainian Cossacks, that Muscovy annexed eastern Ukrainian territories and approached the Black Sea, thereby transforming Ukraine and the Ottoman realm into a region of strategic interest. Czarist Russia was dubbed “the prison of peoples” by the 19th-century French traveller Astolphe de Custine, a phrase later picked up by Lenin. It was as brutal an empire as any, colonizing, displacing and murdering the indigenous populations of north Caucasus, Crimea, Siberia and the lower Volga and repopulating these lands with Russian settlers. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/brief-history-finlands-swedens-strained-ties-with-russia-2022-05-12/ The 20th century was the bloodiest time in human history as a result of a disastrous combination of factors. The German invasion had created shortages of food in the cities. Peace, too, was desired, especially by the soldiers at the front, who lacked munitions. Above all, land, was desired by the peasants, who for 50 years had suffered from acute “land hunger.” Germany sent the exiled Lenin back to Russia. Lenin and Trotsk had lived in exile abroad because their views had brought them into conflict with the imperial government. Mensheviks, led by Martov, favoured a large, loosely organised democratic party whose members could agree to differ on many points. They were prepared to work with the liberals in Russia, and they had scruples about the use of violence. The Bolsheviks, led by Bolshevik Vladimir Lenin, were hardline revolutionaries. Lenin called his group ‘hards’ and his opponents ‘softs’. Lenin ushered in the long-time communist practice of manipulating ideology to obtain whatever was desired. Lenin created the slogan for a suffering populace: “peace, land, and bread.” Ironically, Lenin, who came from the intelligentsia and never did physical work, said he relished a good open fight instead of endless inconclusive talk. He survived, in part, by living off his mother’s funds. He was always raising funds and inciting class warfare across the Soviet Union. He imposed fixed grain prices at low rates, straining peasants who already were living on the margins. When the peasants began resisting, Lenin ordered government officials to torture them. Lenin, however, believed Stalin was too heavy-handed. Often described as Europe's deadliest conflicts since WW-2, the Third Balkans civil-wars led to the breakup of the Yugoslavia. It was marked by many war crimes, including genocide, crimes against humanity and rape. By 1996, Serbia and Montenegro hosted about 300,000 registered refugees from Croatia and 250,000 from Bosnia and Herzegovina, while an additional 15,000 persons from Macedonia and Slovenia were also registered as refugees. Over a million Bosnian Muslims and Croats were driven from their homes in ethnic cleansing. Serbs suffered too. One out of every eleven people were either refugees or displaced in Serbia by 1999. Not allowing Russia (who were eager for an alliance) to join NATO was “one of the worst mistakes in political history. It automatically put Russia and the West on a collision course. Putin would later famously say that the breakup of the Soviet Union “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” The former Yugoslavia was a federation of 6 republics, that brought together Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnian Muslims, Albanians, and others under a comparatively relaxed communist regime. After President Tito's death in 1980, tensions re-emerged. Calls for more autonomy within Yugoslavia by nationalist groups led in 1991 to declarations of independence in Croatia and Slovenia. The Serb-dominated Yugoslav army lashed out, first in Slovenia and then in Croatia. Bosnia, with a complex mix of Serbs, Muslims and Croats, was next to try for independence. International peace efforts to stop the war failed, the UN was humiliated and over 100,000 died. Soon, Croatia and Bosnia were fully independent. Slovenia and Macedonia had already gone. Montenegro left later. In 1999, Kosovo's ethnic Albanians fought Serbs in another brutal war to gain independence. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, though, NATO began to redefine its purpose to ensure the democratization of newly post-communist republics, which the alliance considered crucial to guaranteeing a stable Europe. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia were accepted in the 1999 and 2004 enlargement of NATO alliance. Poland also joined NATO in 1999, and much to Moscow’s dislike, NATO’s borders expanded farther into Eastern Europe. During the 2008 Bucharest Summit, NATO's backed the US anti-missile shield in in Poland and the Czech Republic. Croatia and Albania were invited to join the NATO alliance for regional stability. Georgia and Ukraine had also hoped to join the NATO but Russia opposed it. Only three months after the Bucharest Summit in 2008, Russia invaded two territories in Georgia on the pretext of defending the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. After the pro-Russian president in Ukraine was ousted in 2014, Russia invaded key points in Eastern Ukraine and annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
"The ultimate test of a great power is its ability to renew." Samuel Huntington Russians push waves of infantry into selected locations on the front lines, concentrating their armour and artillery forces to saturate the enemy's defences. In 1942, as powerful German armoured forces bypassed Stalingrad, the Russians realized that a counterstroke into the lengthy German flank would be more effective than moving forces far to the southeast to defend against German armour. This resulted in the complete encirclement and surrender of the German 6th Army, while powerful German tanks were abandoned far to the east from a lack of fuel and supplies. By 1943, the Germans lacked the resources to mount offensives. They found it easier to wait for the Russians to expose themselves with offensive thrusts, avoid their armoured spearheads, then counterattack into their exposed flanks to maul Russian rear area troops and roll up their spearheads from behind. Poland was the first country invaded and occupied by Nazi Germany in World War II. Members of Poland’s resistance and government-in-exile warned the world about the Nazis’ mass killing of Jews, and thousands of Poles risked their lives to help Jews — even though some Poles murdered or victimized their Jewish compatriots. Nearly all of Poland’s roughly 3 million Jews were killed by the Germans and their collaborators during the Holocaust, and the Nazis built their major death camps in occupied Poland. Young Israelis traditionally travel to Poland in the summer between 11th and 12th grade to tour former Nazi camps, learn about the Holocaust and remember the victims. Rosatom has control over a large part of the imports of natural uranium from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
"In wartime, truth is so precious, she should always be accompanied by a bodyguard of lies." Sir Winston Leonard-Spencer Churchill. The dark internal logic of propaganda is to rub out all distinctions between truth and lies; and this shape-shifting propaganda makes just enough of a lasting impression to leave people feeling distrustful and victimized. But before any one line of thinking can be pursued for too long, the narrative jumps to something else. People are left distracted and angry, but unsure of why or at whom. chevauchee or cabalgadas or nabeg: Tactically, "Raiding" is “an operation to temporarily seize an area in order to secure information, confuse an adversary, capture personnel or equipment, or to destroy a capability culminating in a planned withdrawal.” It is an established historical approach to warfare, with discernible phasing, objectives, ways, and an overall strategy. Raiding is an effective riposte to a strong but distracted opponent. In the early 1960s, Russian intelligence agents mounted a vast anti-Semitic campaign in the West Germany, financing and coordinating with various Nazi nostalgic organizations to demoralize a democracy and undermine the credibility of their leaders. The Red Army had its armored raids of World War II, like the 24th Tank Corps raid on Tatsinskaya during the last stages of the Battle of Stalingrad in December 1942. In 1965, Glenn Snyder first proposed & later Robert Jervis explained, the existence of a "stability-instability paradox" to explain strategic stability at the nuclear level could actually encourage or enable conflict at lower levels of the spectrum, especially through information warfare & the use of surrogates or proxies. It is unclear if these same rules for strategic stability apply in today’s environment. Today’s security environment is characterized by complex asymmetries, multi-domain conflict, and nine nuclear-armed states with widely divergent intentions. In this more fragmented competitive environment, emerging technologies, especially in the digital information space, can level the playing field, providing smaller states virtual expeditionary forces with global reach. Both Russia and China, on the other hand, have felt compelled to challenge institutional structures and avoid direct traditional military competition, while pursuing asymmetric approaches to competition “below and beyond” traditional one-upmanship in the conventional military domain. These states hope to advance their interests through coercive influence and digital proxies without clear attribution or risk of escalation. At the beginning of the 50s, the US was well-regarded not only in Iran but across the Middle East. Nasir al-Din Shah, Shah of Iran from 1848-1896, sold Baron Julius de Reuter the right to operate all of Iran’s railroads and canals, most of the mines, all of the government’s forests, and all future industries. "As a country that freed itself from a European colonial power, the USA set an example." That was the case until it decided its business interests dictated replacing a democracy with a dictator. "That's when the USA really gambled something away". US uses human rights and dissidents - as a pressure point, particularly at key times in the relationship when the West is looking for something in return. The West takes the power differential into its calculus in calibrating the raising of human rights with other countries across the world. In 1980 the U.S. military was terrified the Soviet Union would take advantage of the Iranian Revolution to invade Iran and seize the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. So the Pentagon came up with a plan: If the Soviets began massing their troops, we would use small nuclear weapons to destroy the mountain passes in northern Iran the Soviets needed to move their troops into the country. The US’s intelligence spending is $80 billion per year. The so-called Vault 7 Wikileaks revealed how the CIA hacked Apple and Android smartphones in overseas spying operations and efforts to turn internet-connected televisions into listening devices. Prior to his arrest without bail, Joshua Schulte, a 33-year-old former CIA software engineer, helped create the hacking tools. Cofer Black, who was Director of the CIA’s Counterterrorist Center, was Vice Chairman of Virginia based ACADEMI (also called Xe Services, formerly Blackwater Worldwide) with merged with Reston based Triple Canopy to form Constellis Holdings private Co. mercenaries. Black was also Chairman of Total Intelligence Solutions, created by The Prince Group in 2007 which was later renamed OODA, with chief executive Robert Richer, a former CIA associate deputy director of operations. CIA got its start trying to influence the outcome of Italy’s elections in 1948 in an effort to keep Communists from taking power. CIA admits that it had engineered the 1953 coup against Iran’s democratically elected leader, Mohammad Mossadegh, when the US and Britain installed the Shah. The BBC transmitted a secret code to help Kermit Roosevelt lay the groundwork for an American and British coup in 1953 to overthrow of Iran’s Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. The US has toppled leaders like Jacabo Arbenz in Guatemala, to Patrice Lumumba in the Congo; training and/or arming vicious killers from the Contras in Nicaragua to al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. The US has supported exile groups responsible for attacks on the island, including the 1976 bombing of a Cuban passenger flight from Barbados that killed 73 people aboard. The US shot down a civilian Iranian airliner — killing 290 people, including 66 children. The FBI (capitalist US), & East German police (East bloc of communist Soviets), both developed COunter INTELligence PROgram that to paralyze the political dissent (was treated as terrorism) from the inside, while avoiding the use of overt force. The idea was to chip away at a dissident’s sanity so that he would lose the will to resist, or in the words of a Stasi guide, “(provoke) internal conflicts and contradictions within hostile-negative forces that fragment, paralyze, disorganize, and isolate” the opponent. The first step in COINTELPRO campaign was to identify the target’s weak spots—health, family, finances — then strike them at their core repeatedly. They might send mail from an unknown woman demanding child support or false reports of rape. They might enlist doctors to give false medical diagnoses or ensure the dissident’s career progress is reversed. It is a nightmare designed to unglue a dissident’s psychea, a strategy of gaslighting. Some targets suffered breakdowns, and others killed themselves. After the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, the United States funded guerrillas, many of them religious extremists, to fight the occupation government. It was a clever American strategy back then, pushing a wounded Soviet Union and opportunistically exploiting local grievances wherever possible. And it’s an equally clever Russian approach now, offering maximum gain at minimum potential cost. It is a clever exploitation of local cultural and religious bias — the sort of “divide and rule” move favored by intelligence agencies for centuries. Over time, globalization has also led to the development of asymmetric networks, which have given certain countries, particularly the United States, outsized advantage. Sanctioned countries have begun developing cryptocurrencies that do not need to flow through the U.S. financial system, thereby evading U.S. sanctions. Venezuela, for example, developed a national cryptocurrency called the Petromoneda (or Petro) in February 2018 that was backed by barrels of oil. North Korea, Russia, Iran, and others are also reportedly exploring cryptocurrencies as part of an effort to evade sanctions. In addition, sanctioned countries can engage in cyber theft against financial institutions or steal cryptocurrencies as a source of funding, thereby undermining the impact of sanctions. North Korea seems to be aggressively pursuing this path. According to the U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control, North Korean state-sponsored cyber groups reportedly stolen over $1.1 billion dollars (and $571 million in cryptocurrency) from international exchanges and banks between January 2017 and September 2018. Ironically, as the drivers of globalization and the growth, the West itself has made 'raiding' against itself so lucrative. Global connectivity, labor flows, migration both legal and illegal, proliferation of information technologies such as social media, are all enabling factors. Michael Kofman. Nuclear powers can engage their competitors’ core strategic interests directly, intrusively, and coercively (and perhaps unintentionally), well below traditional forms of armed conflict, especially through cyber, economic, and media-based attacks. As states drive to compete and win at the sub-conventional level — in the "gray zone" — the risk of strategic crisis may increase. What if, by undermining and manipulating independent institutions of government and democratically-elected political leaders, during a crisis or conflict, non-democratic states can use "gray-zone" tactics to divide the public from their leaders and institutions, foment internal conflict, and impede senior decision-making? Economic security is national security, and a strong economy has sustained the growth of power. The United States enjoys unrivalled structural power, due both to its reserve currency and because it maintains the world’s most powerful military and is the global leader in technological development and innovation. A network of like-minded allies have endowed US with a unique ability to influence international affairs. US has long had preponderant influence over the global economy choke points such as the Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). The long-term effectiveness of these kinds of sanctions strategies will depend on the centrality of the US financial system and the dollar. The more money that sanctioned entities had flowing through US banks, generally the broader the impact of US sanctions has been. Since the West holds all the trump-cards, India has no other choice but to deepen economic and industrial ties with the West. While Russia had promised India that if India placed greater emphasis on the Russia-India-China (RIC) grouping, then China will be persuaded to considerably reduce its aggressive stance against India. Overall, Russia is balancing its interests between China and India and does not want to take a clear sides. However, if China is defeated in the US-China competition, Russia fear it may be US's next target. AUKUS was devised and formed as an idea of enhancing the military component when QUAD was missing a military component to deter China. The axis began with a vibrant new economic superpower (Germany then, China now) looking for more respect, territory and a "place in the sun." The 20th century axis also had a declining empire (Austria-Hungary) playing the part of the hapless sidekick during World War I, while Italy assumed that role in World War II. These days the loser sidekick is Russia, an empire no more but still eager to recapture past glories at any cost. The future of war is not fighting, but famine, not the slaying of men, but the breakup of the whole social organisation and the bankruptcy of nations. A sudden, non-linear strategic crises could emerge in a multipolar world of regionally oriented nuclear weapons possessors. Today’s security environment is characterized by complex asymmetries, multi-domain conflict, and nine nuclear-armed states with widely divergent intentions. Nations with nuclear weapon has can engage their enemy's core strategic interests coercively, well below armed conflict, through non-contact like psychological warfare using internet, satellites, economic (sanctions) and combative diplomacy. Stoking division in other nations isn't just common, it's an obvious tool to make it tear itself apart. For example, the Kurds were used by CIA to tear Syria. Russian intelligence certainly seems to have a good understanding of how to push the US's buttons. The assault on democracy is avoidable, yet it's embraced by millions. Both foreign propaganda and marketing (Rufus Mile's Law of Management) over mass media venues are disguised to look and sound like news. Marketing can make up for a bad product as long as you develop a few "true believers". It's the same play-book, that well-financed groups use to convince a substantial share of the public that lies are true. History repeats itself not as farce, but as click-bait. To believe in a lie, it must be terrifying. When lies repeatedly affect the same segments of the population (and no group is immune), those absorbing this toxicity become distrustful of facts from reputable sources while latching onto even the most far-fetched conspiracy theories that because we all want it to be true. Romans understood propaganda and spin. Russia has been studying this concept of ‘black’ psychological attack for the last 15 years and has demonstrated its prowess in Crimea and Chechnya, and through the purported meddling in the last US elections. Psychological attack has two forms:
5th Gen War, Whoever is first to recognize, understand, and implement a generational change can gain a decisive advantage. Conversely, a nation that is slow to adapt to generational change opens itself to catastrophic defeat. Democracy can only function properly if electorate are able to make informed decisions (without doubt & confusion). They must be aware of the sources of information they base their decisions on. Its “a tailored mix of conventional weapons, irregular tactics, terrorism, and criminal behavior in the same time and battlespace to obtain [a group’s] political objectives.” Frank Hoffman. "Economic sanctions are not a factor in this equation. Russia has the lowest debt ratio to GDP of any of the actors, and any of its moves will cause chaos in western economies beyond the scale Russia could be affected." Back in 1981, some 85% of the Chinese population was living in extreme poverty, while today it's less than 1%. Biological infection can accomplish precisely what the trade war is supposed to do — exports and stocks prices drop precipitously. The Spanish flu or “forgotten pandemic”, the deadliest in history, was detrimental to the U.S. economy. Citizens were ordered to wear masks, schools, theatres and businesses were shuttered and bodies piled up. In some places, there weren’t enough farm-workers to harvest crops. One unusual aspect of the 1918 flu was that it struck down many previously healthy, young people, including a number of WW1 servicemen. In fact, more U.S. soldiers died from the 1918 flu than were killed in battle during the war. 40% of the U.S. Navy was hit with the flu, while 36% of the Army became ill, and troops moving around the world in crowded ships and trains helped to spread the killer virus. Although the death toll attributed to the Spanish flu is often estimated at 20 million to 50 million victims worldwide, other estimates run as high as 100 million victims—around 3 percent of the world’s population. The exact numbers are impossible to know due to a lack of medical record-keeping. Complicating matters was the fact that WW1 had left parts of America with a shortage of physicians and other health workers. And of the available medical personnel in the U.S., many came down with the flu themselves. While a war is being conducted on the battlefield, in the cognitive domain, a narrative is concurrently created to control the perception of the war. Large social media platforms have become the ‘main battleground for cognitive games and the main channel to influence people’s cognition.’ On these platforms, various short videos have become the ‘first scene’ for the public to understand various major events like a conflict or war. If one is technologically able to disrupt the adversary’s ability to communicate, it is possible to effectively suppress an adversary’s narrative. Military operations have a key supporting role to live updates on social media and allow for targeted disruption of the adversary. In fast-changing conditions, an ad hoc approach don't work. This requires a shift of gears from strategy as planning to strategy as learning. Embedding this adaptive capability is the only route to a sustainable advantage. Use the whole of government, both offensively and defensively.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-breaks-silence-china-map-disputed-islands-1823983 If you want to understand Russia, read about Ukraine-Russia & Georgia-Russia. If you want to understand China, read about India-China. While Stalin was alive and through the 1950s, the Warsaw Pact maintained an almost entirely defensive posture aimed at protecting member states from a Western invasion. Likely reflecting America’s massive nuclear superiority at the time, these war plans did not envision the use of nuclear weapons in any capacity. It was only after Stalin died, and specifically in the 1960s, that the Soviet Union designed new war plans. The Soviet war planners (rightly) anticipated that the United States and its allies would resort to the massive use of nuclear weapons early in the conflict. Britain alone intended to drop around 40 nuclear bombs on the Soviet Union in the event of war. A full nuclear strike launched on a pre-emptive basis by the US would have delivered over 3,200 nuclear weapons to 1,060 targets in the Soviet Union, China, and non-communist allied countries in Asia and Europe. The Soviet Union’s war plans called for making liberal use of tactical nuclear weapons against NATO military targets. These were decidedly offensive nature and envisioned a blitzkrieg-type assault that allowed the Warsaw Pact to conquer most of Western Europe in a matter of days. The larger nuclear weapons would be used to destroy major cities in Western Europe, including Hamburg, Bonn, Munich and Hannover in West Germany; Rotterdam, Utrecht and Amsterdam in the Netherlands; and Antwerp and Brussels in Belgium. Five nuclear weapons in total would have been unleashed on Denmark as well. A number of Italian cities would be targeted as well. Even Austria, which was a neutral country in the Cold War, would not be spared. Soviet war plans called for dropping two nuclear weapons on Vienna. Contrary to Western planners of the time, the Soviet Union believed that nuclear weapons would be used to shape the overall battlefield. Russia believes that the US never stopped containing Russia. Russia firmly believes that Americans are interventionists and falsely moralistic in their discourse. Since the collapse of the Berlin wall, NATO's and the EU's borders have moved east. Russia fears that Ukraine's and Georgia's expressed desire to join both organisations, risks bringing those organisations to Russia's most vulnerable borders - to the east and the south." The West should "consider the "Finlandisation" of Ukraine as a compromise outcome to the current crisis - something that is being advocated by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and former US National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski. (Finland maintained neutrality by not joining NATO during and after the Cold War.) Finland's President Sauli Niinisto himself, in a recent interview with the Washington Post, predicted that Finland joining NATO would negatively affect relations with Russia. "It is very obvious that if Finland joins NATO, that would undoubtedly harm our relations with Russia. You have to keep in mind that 1,300km is a long border, and you just don't keep it closed. On the contrary, it's a living border," Niinisto said. It's time Ukraine does the same." Or it will be too late for things to work out. https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-membership-defense-ukraine-turkey-poland-uk/ Former members of the Reagan & the first Bush administrations were heavily influenced by Project for the New American Century (PNAC) principles developed from Kristol and Kagan's article published in the New York Times under Foreign Affairs titled "Reaganite" and suggested that the US should adopt a stance of "benevolent global hegemony" using pre-emptive "military strength" for "constabular" duties to shape the world and by promoting regime change in Iraq for political and economic "international order friendly to our security, our prosperity, and our principles." According to one of PNAC 90-page report advocated the cancellation of "roadblock" defence programs which absorb "exorbitant" amounts of Pentagon funding, but favored the development of "global US missile defenses," and the creation of a new military service for "space control." To prevent NATO expansion, Putin in 5 days invaded neighbouring Georgia in August 2008, five months before Bush was to step down and Obama came to power. Beyond suspending diplomatic contacts, the Bush administration had done next to nothing to punish Russia for its aggression. Obama would himself face criticism from his successor, President Donald Trump, for not supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons. Obama realised his “reset” of U.S.-Russia relations with then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev were doomed the moment he met with Putin for the first time, Kremlin’s real power, in July 2009 in Russia. Obama said that Putin, the leader of Russia's government, resembled a "criminal syndicate" — tough, street smart, unsentimental, — who viewed "patronage, bribery, shake-downs, fraud and occasional violence as legitimate tools of the trade" who considered lack of scruples, not flaws but rather as advantages. He said Putin has built a country "to be feared" but "not emulated". Obama had been previously warned by Bill Burns, one of the State Department’s senior Russia specialists, that Putin had to “get a few things off his chest”. During their first meeting, Putin launched into an "animated and seemingly endless monologue chronicling every perceived injustice, betrayal, and slight that he and the Russian people had suffered at the hands of the Americans” over the past two decades, including expanding NATO and Bush's invasion of Iraq of destabilizing the entire Middle East. It was 45 minutes rant before he finally stopped and Obama claims that Putin seemed open but not enthusiastic to American point of view. Obama was getting deeply worried about the up-tick in nationalism and anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe. He felt the rise of democratization and liberalization that rose since WW2 was "beginning to recede". Putin accused the Obama administration in late 2011 of trying to foment unrest in Russia following pro-democracy protests. In 2014, Putin annexed Crimea and backed rebels in eastern Ukraine after the toppling of Kyiv's pro-Kremlin leader, sending U.S.-Russia relations to a new low. Obama along with allies kicked Russia out of the G8 group of leaders of the most powerful industrial countries, and slapped sanctions on Russia to punish Putin for his hostile actions toward Ukraine. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/23/the-cia-says-russia-hacked-the-u-s-election-here-are-6-things-to-learn-from-cold-war-attempts-to-change-regimes/
Russian leader Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin had been fixated on Ukraine. Control over the country was synonymous with Putin’s concept of Russian identity and authority. Russians and Ukrainians, he argued, were “one people” — an idea rooted in Putin’s claims about “blood ties” — and Russia had been “robbed” of its own territory by a scheming West. The precision of the war planning, coupled with Putin’s conviction that Ukraine should be reabsorbed by the motherland, left United States with no doubts that Putin was prepared to invade. While not a member of NATO or the European Union, Ukraine was now moving steadily into the Western political, economic and cultural orbit. ‘Well, you started it, and we’re just defending ourselves.’ Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov charged the West with seeking regime change in Moscow. The "enhanced" use of sanctions, as well as the so-called "colour revolutions" in the post-Soviet area, which the Russia interprets just as if it were the "hybrid warfare". Belarus and Ukraine are the last buffers between NATO and Russia. In the early 2000s, when Russia was weak, Putin hoped to make a deal, trading Russian support for the U.S. so-called War on Terror in exchange for certain prerogatives: being treated as a great power, a free hand in it's near abroad, and a U.S. ‘hands off’ approach in the former Soviet space. Back then, Moscow sought to explain why Russia deserves a seat at the table, but it was judged in Washington as too weak and irrelevant. Putin honestly believed that the US is trying to overthrow him. When that approach didn’t work, Russia sought to demonstrate that its power and influence was grossly underestimated. After years of U.S. influence over Russian affairs, especially in the chaotic 1990s, it is sweet revenge from Russia. Russian-sponsored hacking into DNC computers…is simply payback for negative Western media reports. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Russia is in direct confrontation with the West on a vision about the world order, on Ukraine, on Syria and on a great many other large and not-so-large issues. Starting with the 2008 Russia-Georgia War, Moscow began using force to prevent NATO expansion. Russia does it see NATO as anything other than America’s Warsaw Pact, an organization structured around the projection of U.S. military power. As such, what the Kremlin understands the current international order to be is simply a system built around American unipolarity. It’s important to understand that Russian elites too believe time is on their side. Since the collapse of the Soviet, the Russian past is often glorified and the dark chapters are glossed over. Many people consider the first head of Soviet counter-intelligence (Polish) a national hero, while others hold him responsible for the “Red Terror” of the early 1920s. Peter the Great heeded the advice of Ukrainian clerics that his empire, now termed Russia, should claim lineage with the medieval Kievan Rus state, the core of which was located in today’s Ukraine. Since then Ukraine-Russia has a long history of of Ukrainians leaders who unsuccessfully revolted against Russia and those Ukrainians officers who were more loyal to oppressive Russians than fellow Ukrainians. Ukraine was the most fertile agricultural Soviet republic, but was catastrophically affected by Stalin’s economic policy. After the war Stalin rewarded Ukrainian who were pro-Russian and punished the Ukrainian militia for collaborating with the Nazi regime and participating in the genocide. Nikita Khrushchev became Premier of Soviet Union during the height of the Cold War was from a villge in present Ukrainia-Russia border. The “color revolutions” — pro-democracy street protests that toppled governments from 2003 to 2005 in several former Soviet countries, including Ukraine — marked a turning point in relations between Russia and the United States. Russian military planners began treating color revolutions as a new approach to warfare and power projection. After years of keeping its hacking activities secret, Russia picked this particularly unsettling moment in U.S. politics to make its exploits public. Russia is using the playbook it has used in Europe to try to destabilize public trust in government, weaken support for the NATO military alliance. Russia had outsmarted the Obama administration’s refusal to sign a formal treaty banning the use of attacks in cyberspace (especially after it was revealed that the US and Israel had developed a malicious cyber-weapon, Stuxnet, to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program). Putin sees geo-political forces as useful tools to be manipulated and exploited. Russia's supply of roughly 30% of Europe's natural gas is the key wedge that prevents a more powerful U.S.-European response to the Crimean annexation. Germany will continue to put the brakes on sanctions that might harm its national interests. New NATO members in Eastern Europe and the Baltic region express their palpable fears that they may share Ukraine's fate. After US Congress passed the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act in July 2017 and the executive branch closed ranks to prevent any rapprochement, it became clear that no deal was in the offing between the Kremlin and the White House. The Russian Gerasimov Doctrine: According to Russia’s chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov's view, the West pioneered indirect approaches to warfare; leveraging political subversion, propaganda, and social media, along with economic measures such as sanctions. From his perspective, humanitarian interventions, the use of Western special forces, funding for democracy movements, and the deployment of mercenaries and proxies were all features of a U.S. doctrine of indirect warfare. He alleged Western sponsored “color revolutions” as a nonlinear 'hybrid' warfare. Russia eventually came up with a hybrid warfare doctrine that they had spent 2 years worried about. Russia made a move to annexation of Crimea which caught almost everyone off guard. The Russian military disguised its actions, and denied them - but those "little green men" who popped up in the Black Sea peninsula were a textbook case of the Russian practice of military deception - or "maskirovka" (is as old as Sun Tzu). Denial is another vital component in maskirovka. The U.S. call such tactics CC&D - concealment, camouflage and deception. Russia is moving rapidly to strengthen its relationship with the FMLN (Farabundo Martí National Liberation) government in El Salvador, whose senior leaders were almost all trained in the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. With Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia, China, North Korea, etc., vying for attention, simmering issues like the Russian advances in Latin America are simply not given Tier One treatment. Very few intelligence resources have been dedicated to the problem set, because there is no immediately visible threat. There are multiple “retired” senior KGB officials now running numerous electronic businesses and intelligence operations in Latin America, with strong indicators of ties to the most senior levels of the Russian military and intelligence establishments. Russia is seeking to engage in specific areas where the US has traditionally engaged: counter narcotics training, weapons sales, the development of military doctrine, and strategic intelligence alliances. The Russian presence is not yet a strategic threat. A key tool in propaganda is using freewheeling Internet-based message boards to mold and manipulate public opinion. Twitter revealed that their analysis software had discovered over 20,000 suspect accounts, but that most of these appeared to be legitimate accounts of people who sided with the Chinese government. Facebook reported that they had found a large number of accounts that appeared to be taking orders from the Chinese government to discredit and disparage the Hong Kong protestors, or simply drive pro-protestor users off Facebook pages or discussions favorable to the protests. This sort of thing has been going on for decades and expanded and escalated after 1995 when the Internet became easier to use among the rapidly growing number of PC, and later cellphone, users. Reality at the information level is more and more difficult to verify and easier to manipulate because of cyberspace. What is also important is the fact that in this information environment, it is very easy to reach people who propagate disinformation. The CIA has used a similar technique to counter anti-American, or pro-terrorist, activity on the Internet. Russia adopted the Chinese technique of harnessing the enthusiasm of pro-government volunteers. By 2015 Russia had turned Internet trolling into a profession. More Americans have become aware of this form of Information War since late 2016 when suddenly there frequent accusations of Russia interfering in American elections. This pre-Internet technique was called “astroturfing”, creating fake “grassroots” support. Those techniques have been updated and continue. Even before Russia had turned Internet trolling into a profession Israel kicked this process up a level in 2013 by establishing a special tuition assistance program for university students who agreed to regularly post messages on the Internet to combat anti-Semitism and anti-Israel propaganda. By using carefully selected university students the Israelis are better able to avoid detection and deliver more effective messages. South Korea believes North Korea has had (since at least 2014) several hundred operatives whose sole task is to battle anti-North Korean sentiments on South Korean Internet message. Black Cube or BC Strategy was founded in 2011 by Dan Zorella, a former IDF military intelligence officer based in London, Dr. Avi Yanus and the late Meir Dagan was president of the board. British-Jewish billionaire Vincent Tchenguiz who worked with Black Cube / BC Strategy, was also the largest shareholder in SCL Group, the owner of Cambridge Analytica, which became Donald Trump’s data company during the 2016 presidential election. Cambridge Analytica whistleblower Christopher Wylie told that “the company utilized the services of an Israeli private intelligence firm, Black Cube” in 2015 to hack the personal data of Nigerian President prior to his election. Ancient leaders understood propaganda and spin. Julius Caesar and Alexander the Great controlled what version of events was distributed as official, or even unofficial, news. And in ancient Egypt, where a permanent record of government achievements was painted or carved into the walls of government structures, archeologists have only recently discovered that many of those official records were subject to a lot of spin. Many of those ancient records, it turned out, were lies, told in order to influence public opinion. 2000 years ago the ancient Romans saw schools of rhetoric and oratory as the best place to send bright young men with potential to be leaders. There schools taught the use of rhetoric, logic and persuasion to make a point and convince people. Public speaking (or dictating speeches to a scribe) were the way you got your persuasive ideas into circulation. Some of the techniques those students used are still studied and many of these ancient methods evolved and mutated into modern propaganda and media spin. The schools at Rhodes were, for well-off ancient Romans, sort of a university education because these institutions were, for centuries, excellent at teaching rhetoric and oratory. Information Warfare Is The Power Of Misdirection And Confusion: re-segregation of society catalyzed by using algorithms. Humans have always had an insatiable hunger for bullshit and fairy tales, from folk tales told around the fire to small-town gossip, to Bigfoot-bedecked tabloids in the checkout line. It reflect and reinforce our prejudices, and they give us sweet dreams. In an epic battle sparked by the U.S. election and fought on the vast planes of social media, news stories – stories powered in the main by researched truth – were pitted against fake stories, and fact and truth took a severe beating. People go to social media to see what their friends and the pages they follow are posting. What makes this a “post-truth” election, instead of just your average “people lying a lot about everything” election, is that folks seem entirely indifferent to the truth. Islamic terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) have proved quite adept at manipulating the mass media to their advantage. They use a combination of technical savvy and ancient techniques for changing minds. In the early 19th century, Napoleon Bonaparte tightly controlled the distribution of news in France and his conquered territories. In fact, historians believe fake propoganda news may have induced the Spanish-American War of 1898. And that trend just kept going, especially once the radical socialist movements (especially fascism and Russian communism) got hold of it in the early 20th century. All this was more evolution than revolution because starting in the late 19th century a growing number of powerful propaganda methods and techniques for controlling public opinion were developed. Many of these techniques are actually ancient but never before have they been used so intensively, persistently, and in greater variety to such a large audience. This efforts went into high gear in the 1990s because, since the 1980s there has been an unprecedented proliferation of news media. First came round-the-clock TV news that was available worldwide. As that continued to spread in the 1990s the Internet appeared and the proliferation of news outlets accelerated. While it was nice to have news round-the-clock and with the help of the Internet, from anywhere on the planet, often in real time, there were some downsides. Major problems were created by the fierce competition for audience. That led to a ruthless approach to presenting the news. It became more important to “attract eyeballs” than reporting the news accurately. Ads about products and services may be disguised to look and sound like a news story. Black PR firms have been providing clients with both post deletion of negative news stories and also provide hit pieces. That also led to more propaganda as governments and special interest groups found that if their message were packaged the right way lies would be more convincing than the truth. The chief use of euphemism (double speak) is designed to secret signal to the initiated, and to keep strangers out. Most say it when responding rather abrasively to show they are superior and unique. Basically, using euphemisms, you can get away with a lot more and make the obscene more palatable. Fake news is not a new problem. Everyone can lie. Fake news is just modern propaganda. The only difference is modern technology is making fake news guilt-free, open-season and licensed mendacity. History repeats itself not as farce but as click-bait. But the age of such cyber-conflict is still in its infancy. The popular "story" tellers are politician who are skilled in the art of mud sticks & sling. There came to be a body of techniques that are most effective. Here they are and if you spend any time at all consuming mass media, you will find these techniques familiar. Authority & Associative Image: To keep hammering that you are socially powerful and highly-regarded people like you or agree with you. Social Comparison: While it sounds complex, it’s actually really simple. It states that we are constantly evaluating our beliefs by checking in with people like us, to see if they see the world the same way as us. We’re tribal creatures. In situations of uncertainty, we tend to follow the herd. All of these people couldn’t be wrong, could they? In many ways, Social Comparison Theory tries to understand how social proof works. Why do people tend to become similar to one another? What drives us to bind together with our fellow men and women? When you see social proof as a way of evaluating your environment, and getting second and third and fourth opinions on your perception, it makes a lot of sense. After all, in math class we’re taught to check our work. Why wouldn’t we also double-check our perception? Obviously the beliefs you have, the way you see the world, is valid; at least all of these people think the same way as you. The rally just might be the perfect way for people to validate and strengthen their beliefs. And, once your attitude changes, your behaviors will change as well.
"The word “media” comes from “intermediate” between newsmakers and the public." Exhaustively researched journalism – presented by legitimate news outlets; fact-checked until it was true in the face, and in the heart; run through legal, after attempts made to reach all sides for comment, all at great cost – drew far less attention than hastily hoisted screeds of pure fright and fancy typed up, often enough, by some entrepreneurial teens in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. BuzzFeed and The Guardian reported that the Macedonian town of Veles, boasting a population of 45,000, is the cradle of at least 140 American-politics websites. Working overwhelmingly for click-earned ad money, not love of Donald Trump, the youth of Veles offered up thousands of invented, mostly anti-Hillary Clinton stories (there just wasn’t much of a market for anti-Trump stories, they found) under eye-catching headlines. Reporting bias: the tendency to systematically under- or over-report certain types of events — shapes our understanding of war. While the media in democracies typically are relatively independent from government influence, they have their own institutional biases — such as “newsworthiness” criteria that emphasize novelty, conflict, proximity, and drama. The implication is that living in a democratic state with a free press does not ensure that a media consumer will receive unfiltered information about who is doing what to whom, even during high-visibility events. Irresponsible journalism: Each news outlet has its own approach to reporting on what’s happening in the world. While no media outlet is completely objective, some don’t even try to be. For example, Fox News tailor their news to right-leaning audiences. Cable TV, so important to Trump’s rise, seems torn between two personalities: one driven by ratings and profit, the other by its responsibility to inform the public. Trusted news outlets sometimes spread false information. Sources may lie to reporters. Journalists can fall victim to pranks or hackers. Laziness and deadline pressures can cause mistakes. Unethical scribes have exaggerated or concocted news on many occasions. Advertisements about products and services may be disguised to look and sound like a news story. E.g. The Washington Post once won a Pulitzer Prize for a story that was later exposed as fabricated. As long as Facebook optimises for engagement, legitimate news websites have little reason to be balanced. If Facebook abandons its stance as a 'neutral technology platform' it risks reinforcing the very conspiracy theories it is attempting to dismantle. If Facebook were to appoint themselves as official arbiters of the truth, the move would act as proof for many that big business and the media go hand in hand, legitimising a further retreat into partisan ideological bubbles as paranoia about the ‘mainstream media’ grows even stronger. "A big lie" (illusion of truth) stratagem, coined during WW2, require an enabling environment to work. Both sides used it but the Nazi Public Enlightenment & Propaganda Ministry list of public brainwashing tactics included:
Israel began the paid-for astroturfing process in 2013 by establishing a special tuition assistance program for university students who agreed to regularly post messages on the Internet to combat anti-Semitism and anti-Israel propaganda. By using carefully selected university students the Israelis are better able to avoid detection and deliver more effective messages. This could be a key advantage of this program. Israel is unique in being one of the few countries to admit doing this, while many others have been caught but continue to deny any official involvement. In the US the same techniques were adopted to push political candidates or commercial products. There it was called "viral marketing." The U.S. is unique in that, for about a century, the American mass media was largely free of this blatant bribery. But in most of the world, a clever journalist quickly attracts the attention of people who will pay for some favorable comments. The mass media in the United States only discovered the existence of this Russian troll army in 2016. A key tool in this was using freewheeling Internet-based message boards to mold and manipulate public opinion. How Russian dezinformatsiya worked in the United States became easier to understand in October 2018 when Twitter released a 350 GB file containing over 10 million tweets from 3,800 accounts belonging to Russian organizations that engage in media manipulation. There were also one million tweets by Iranian trolls seeking to influence public opinion. These tweets date from 2013. Early on the term for the Russian paid disinformation posters (commonly called “trolls”) was the “50 ruble” or “50 cent” army and they were a known problem on Internet newsgroups and message boards since the 1990s. By 2015 Russia had turned Internet trolling into a profession with full-time workers getting paid $700 to $1,000 a month (plus bonuses for especially effective efforts) and working in office settings rather than from home. The CIA has used a similar technique to counter anti-American, or pro-terrorist, activity on the Internet. The "Sony Hack" exposed personal data -- including SSN's -- of thousands of past and present staffers, as well as film budgets, financial figures and thousands of emails from executives. The data breach, the worst in Hollywood history, was followed by co-chairman Amy Pascal's exit and a class action lawsuit from former employees. "Russia may have concluded that they could hack American institutions and there’d be no price to pay," Schiff, the ranking Democrat on the powerful committee, said at a press event hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. Russia has largely been blamed for this year's hacking of various Democratic party institutions, including the DNC and the emails of Hillary Clinton's campaign manager. The daily drip of bad news, precipitated by leaks published on WikiLeaks, which were in turn picked up by mainstream media outlets, is seen as a factor in Clinton's loss to Donald Trump. A popular conversational gambit is not talking at all about something and it can be very useful in Information War. This selective ignorance is a favorite technique of state controlled media. Thus, in the old Soviet Union you never heard about large scale disasters, serial killers, or areas suffering from pollution. This all came out after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, and was demoralizing for many Russians, who always felt their police state was a better place to live in than it actually was. Governments still try to “control the message” and suppress bad news. What you don’t hear about doesn’t exist (until you become one of the victims). The Internet has made this technique much more difficult, which is why so many countries spend a lot of money to censor the Internet. If little lies don’t work try the “one-one punch”. This is where you pretend to represent two sides but one side gets a couple of great lines, the other side gets a lame line. A variation on the old “damning with faint praise” technique. Another selective presentation technique is the use of subtle inaccuracies or a dismissive tone. This often involves misstating a topic, often a serious one, and pretending any objections or concerns about that are silly, unrealistic, or just not necessary. The current debate over climate change brings out a lot of this because many climate professionals are not in agreement with the “consensus” on just what is changing and why. This has led to more and more embarrassments for proponents as the experts eventually get enough people to take a look at the facts. Examples are the old “hockey stick” prediction of historical temperature that tried to ignore the well documented “little ice age” that lasted from the 13th to the 19th century. There were also false reports of glacial melting that did not match reality but were believed for a while because of too much propaganda and not enough facts. In the last decade a lot of people have lost faith in the “consensus,” which goes to show you that all the techniques here tend to have short shelf lives. Selective presentation is often used in conjunction with “volume” and “coordination”. Volume is merely a deluge of the same story line everywhere, until it becomes dominant, and the media's view of it becomes the dominant view. The mass media loves this one because it can make any story “true” even if it isn’t. The mass media tend to follow each other and you will often find that all the "news" stories about a given current event seem to draw a similar conclusion about it. When you notice this, just ask yourself if it's probable that, in a nation of nearly 320 million, no one has a legitimate opposing opinion. This is why the traditional mass media does not like the Internet, where convincing facts or opinions that contradict the mass media truth can get into circulation. Police states (like China) particularly hate this. Coordination occurs when a number of likeminded journalists all report the same angle at about the same time. This really doesn't require a conspiracy, there are so few "journalists" and they can easily see what their buddies' takes are on issues, then parrot the same line. This also occurs in any large organization (corporation, university, government bureaucracy). Some cultures are more into this than others. In Japan there is a saying that, “The nail that sticks out gets hammered down.” If all else fails you can try fogging an issue. This is often called the total nonsense gambit. Sometimes certain groups have an interest in making sure that as few people pay attention to an issue as possible. A good propagandist can write a long, nonsensical article for the purpose of confusing the majority of readers, who themselves work hard all day. It doesn't take much for them to see a catchy headline, then begin to dig into a long rambling article, then throw their hands up and say "I don't have the extra energy to decipher this!" The reader is correct, the fault is with the propagandist. The fog is often reinforced by distracting or absurd statistics. With this technique the writer attempts to drag the reader into a debate about what the reader is even seeing. This is usually used when the propagandist is falling behind and must hurry to destroy correct understanding of events. Some very simple techniques continue to be effective. One of these is the 2,3,4 Technique. Mentioning only one side of an issue two, three, or four times in an article, each time pretending you are about to present the opposing side but you never do. Then the article suddenly ends and the reader feels bombarded, outnumbered, and alone. Even if the opposing view is held by many people, the author need merely refuse to present that side of the argument. A variation on “2,3,4” is shock and awe. This is when the writer "attacks" the reader viciously at the very outset of the article with the "acceptable" view of the topic. The writer tries to "beat it into" the reader without any regard to other views. Another sneaky, but basic tactic is simply framing the debate. Setting an argument around two "alternatives" which you would prefer, rather than the true alternatives. A variation on that is “token equal time”. Sometimes a weak, tiny understatement is added to a propaganda piece, apparently so the writer can pretend they had been fair. This technique is quite common, it consists of an article written with entirely one point of view, then at the end a meager statement from the opposing view is printed, it is immediately refuted, then the article either ends or continues on with the preferred point of view. Framing the debate is often complemented by efforts to "interpret" A Statement. Have you ever seen a writer say that someone said something, then what the person said followed even though it didn't look anything like what the writer claimed was meant? Selective presentation of information by misinterpretation is as good as an outright lie. A variation on that is withholding Information. Is it the same as lying? Some in the media might not want to answer that question. There are many other techniques, as the last century has been a golden age for this sort of duplicity. The Internet has accelerated the development of new techniques because the web tends to shorten the useful life of these media scams. Now even religious zealots and mass murderers like ISIL are using these tools to get what they want." What is truth? What is reality? "The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the greatest liars; the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth." H.L. Mencken Stimson Center’s Michael Krepon has penned articles promoting the false equivalence between India and Pakistan, even after India has been victimised by Pakistan-backed terrorist attacks. Toby Dalton and George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote a similarly “both sides are the problem” article after Pakistani terrorists attacked Indian security forces in 2016. Notably, all of these scholars’ organisations enjoy public subsidies as they are all tax-exempt (501(c)(3)) institutions. These “think-tanks” who happily trade their integrity for access to Pakistan, how many lives is your visa worth to get access to ISI chief or a few corps commanders? Despite these well-documented abuses—which includes disappearances, torture and murder by Pakistan’s security forces—the United States has not levied Leahy Sanctions as required by U.S. law. Pakistan’s khaki louts disappear, kidnap and/or kill their critics within Pakistan. In addition to poorly-written “filed stories” festooned with calumnious fiction, Pakistan’s military and intelligence agency trains a menagerie of bots and trolls repeating that the Maharaja of Kashmir was obliged—as opposed to encouraged—to choose either Pakistan or India based upon geography and demography. Not only is this untrue, but Kashmir could also have gone either way based upon these considerations. Pakistan’s embassies regularly deploy miscreants to disrupt public events in global capitals. “British Pakistani Patriots” attempted to throw acid on Baloch activists decrying the crimes of Pakistan. "According to reports, the Bison was in the air with Mirage 2000, Su-30MKIs, and maybe most important, the Embraer 145 based DRDO Airborne Early Warning and Control System. This aircraft is not only able to get a 'God's eye' view of the battlespace, including spotting low-flying bogeys and detecting and geolocating the enemy's radar and communications emissions, but it can share what it sees via data-link or voice direction with Indian fighters. India's claim that the Bison got off an R-73 shot just before being shot down fits exactly with what we know about the Bison's sneaky tactics dating back to Cope India 2004. It underscores how sensors, avionics, tactics, and electronic warfare can be more important than the raw performance or age of the platform itself when it comes to modern air combat. The fact is, the side with the more capable sensor and networking architecture and most potent electronic warfare capabilities, as well as a creative tactics playbook and experience to leverage it, can have a far greater advantage regardless of 'airframe versus airframe' performance differentials."Tyler Rogoway During “OP Swift Retort” saw a PAF package of fighters (with munitions) coming from three different air bases. At least 12 were armed PAF F-16C/D with BVR missile like AMRAAM and backed by state-of-the-art SAAB AWACS. PAF fighter jets have two-way tactical data-link to that can share target data with PAF AWACS. Pakistan has 7 Saab erieye mini-awacs aircrafts and 4 zdk-03 Karakoram eagle mini-awacs aircrafts. The Su-30MKI with their R-77 missiles, which have a range that’s shorter than the American AMRAAM, were no match for the US-built F-16s that had better air-to-air weapons. Moreover, the Israeli tactical data-link on Su-30MKI had failed. Mirage 2000 had faced a technical glitch because of which they could not engage PAF with the MICA missiles that have a better range than the ones used by PAF. Realising that the Indian fighters were outgunned and outnumbered, the Barnala-based IACCS ordered the scrambling of 6 ageing MiG-21s which does not possess missile warning receiver or individual jammers. Since the MiGs climbed in the shadow of the Pir Panjal range, Pakistan’s AWACS failed to detect them. It was South Asia’s first aerial engagement in 48 years, and it lasted for some 90 seconds. IAF’s Sukhoi-Su-30MKI was reportedly armed with Russian R-77 missile but due to range restrictions, it was not able to get firing clearance from the onboard computers. Su-30MKI was also operating at much lower altitude than the F-16s, which were beyond 10 km. Su-30MKIs couldn't get permission to cross the LoC. PAF had laid an ambush this side of the LoC, and the jets that had gone across as decoys were to lure the enemy jets towards the ambush site. The approach of the 2 MiG-21s was missed by the F-16s who were busy scanning for the Su-30MKIs, but a Saab 2000 ERIEYE Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) operating in depth near Islamabad, spotted the MiG-21s over Naoshera, warning the F-16s. If Two Mig-29UPG which were dispatched from Adampur Air Force Station had arrived on time that day, flying at high altitude equipped with the same R-77 BVRAAMs it could have knocked down more F-16s that day for sure. The IAF’s ground controller saw the defensive maneuvering of the F-16s, warning the MiGs in turn. PAF larger objective of luring IAF jets into a pre-set “killing zone” was a failure. While his No 2, who was lagging behind, turned ‘cold’ or away from the F-16s which were going ‘hot’ or facing the MiGs — –Abhinandan chose to ignore this threat and continued towards the F-16s. He was in visual pursuit of a PAF fighter, for sure. The ground controller was warning him to return. He didn’t. Because the battle zone had full radio-jamming. That’s why modern fighters have secure data links. The irrefutable radio calls, “I have an R-73 lock-on” and “I am going after him” made by Varthaman before launching the missile stands testimony to his kill before being himself hit by another PAF F-16’s firing an AIM-120C missile, with both aircraft crashing and pilots landing up on the POK side of the LOC. While the first parachute was seen in General Area Sabzkot, the second parachute was spotted in General Area Tandar. The distance between the two locations of the F-16 and MiG-21 wreckage is about 6–7 kms. One of the pilot of f-16 who ejected just before the crashes was captured and lynched by 658 Mujahid battalion from who were chanting full-throated ‘Pak Fauj Zindabad’ slogans. Electronic signatures gathered by the Phalcon’s radar clearly indicates that the aircraft was a F-16. The same is corroborated by a Thales GS-100 Low Level Targeting Radar (LLTR) deployed in that area and integrated into the IACCS, The GS-100 is an AESA radar with low-altitude search capability that can track targets up to 180 km range with high accuracy. The Pakistani F-16 pilot was hospitalised, but succumbed due to extreme injuries. Unlike Chinese fighters, F-16 fighter carries the second-best Western beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile is Raytheon’s deadly accurate AIM-120 ($1.5 million) AMRAAM that entered service in 1992. The latest AIM-120c (range of 160 kms with 10%-15% extra range) victim was an Indian MiG-21, which was baited into a trap and was shot down by an AMRAAM launched by a Pakistani F-16 (one of the handful of advanced Block 52 F-16C/D). However, it could not hit any high-maneuverable Su-30MK, which were equipped with jammers. This event showed how “even continuous monitoring can’t prevent the Pakistan Air Force from using its F-16s in ways the United States doesn’t like”. The US admonished Pakistan for moving some of its F-16s to bases not approved by the US. The war of perceptions and propaganda has always been a vital instrument of enhancing, projecting and exercising national power. It is one of the most critical dimensions along with the diplomatic, military, economic and cultural components of a nation's power. After the Indian air strikes, Delhi should have come out with the announcement of Balakot strikes, instead Pakistan’s ISPR took the lead and announced that Indian airstrikes failed in hitting their targets in. They showed photographs, perhaps fabricated ones, of the craters that the explosions created in open forest land. The Indian government was on the defensive, fumbling for evidence to prove its claims. India’s clumsy and incompetent information management, irresponsible and shallow politicking by politicians and jingoistic reporting by India’s electronic media diluted the message Modi wanted to send. The political class was even a step ahead in making sure that India loses the information war. There was complete chaos, with different politicians in the BJP giving different death counts. The politicians on the other end of the spectrum doubted the validity of the army’s claims and raised a huge question mark on the death count. Indian media was running 24/7 discussions on such sensitive national security issues. In contrast, Pakistan’s media managers did a better job, making Pakistan appear like a responsible state committed to peace, cleverly hiding their 'snakes in the backyard.' Pakistan’s success in controlling the narratives and propaganda. In Kashmir Valley, Pakistan’s shrewd information operations led ordinary people to question the real perpetrators and motives of Pulwama attack. The US mediation led to the release of Indian capture pilot. Here are historian Allan Lichtman's statistical model for predicting which party will win to head the government:
CCP's strategic task is to ensure that at any one time, the US has no less than four enemies - Russia, North Korea, Iranian proxies, Sunni militants; in order for US to totally lose its direction and be bogged down with domestic debates. China till this day is dependent on Russia for spares for its imported and licence-built fighter jets. China till this day is dependent on Russia for spares for its imported and licence-built fighter jets. China has overtaken Germany to become Russia's largest trade partner. Russia has repeatedly said their goal is a free trade zone "from Lisbon to Vladivostok". Russia needs ports, roads, rail, airports and shipping as the ultimate "transit" nation of the world. They want to be in the economic center of the globe, between China and Europe. Rail is fast but expensive, and no one would do that except as a propaganda ploy or in the absence of huge subsidies. The Silk Road Economic Belt that would run across the Eurasian landmass may provide alternatives that offset some of China’s vulnerabilities along major sea lanes. China would carve out a continental sphere of influence from which it could compete against the United States and other seapowers. Railways, roads, and pipelines, along with PLA bases and logistics facili-ties for landward purposes, would provide secure access to markets across Eurasia. It may be a kind of insurance policy to hedge against resistance, instability, or war at sea. But it is unlikely to supplant the Maritime Silk Road as the dominant mode for China’s future development. This study thus assesses that China cannot profitably go global via a continental strategy without incurring heavy costs or without compromising its returns on investment overseas. Seven of China's 8 long-distance international terrestrial cables pass through Russia. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-russia-gas-idUSBREA4K07K20140521 Uyghurs had always been caught between China and Russia. The region formed part of the Great Game. In accordance with the Yalta Agreement, Soviet-Chinese negotiations started in June 1945 and ended in August after the Chinese Nationalist government guaranteed Russian interests in Mongolia and Manchuria. In these negotiations, Chinese Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek demanded from Stalin that Moscow not support East Turkestan independence. Stalin suggested to Mao’s representative Liu Shaoqi that Mao establish the PRC before the end of 1949 and enter Xinjiang province as soon as possible. In February, 1950, Mao and Stalin signed an agreement of Sino-Soviet friendship in Moscow, and Mao agreed to establish a company that would allow the Soviet Union to extract petroleum, uranium and other resources from Xinjiang province.
Although Turkey is a NATO member, smuggling is tolerated if the smugglers will pay the right people for access. Turkey turns into a haven for money launderers, as Iran and Russia use Turkish banks to avoid sanctions. https://nordicmonitor.com/2022/09/turkey-turns-into-heaven-money-launderers-as-iran-russia-taps-on-turkish-banks-to-avoid-sanctions/ |