India was attracting much fewer investments than it was thought to be, as a lot of investments are going to countries like Vietnam and Mexico because of more regional trade agreements. As the current political regime completes its 8 years of governance, India's GDP has risen to 7.2% to 7.6%. This is fine, however, a rise of 6 or 7 percent is not enough to meet India’s ambitions. Its population, now the world’s biggest, is growing. Freedom of Speech is a right for voters and opposition, to at least ask, about what policies have been started by this Govt regarding the 5 crore jobs which were promised before elections. The only 3 thorns in his blooming bed of roses are rising FOOD inflation, the state of youth unemployment and farmer's distress. Today, employment is decreasing. The unemployment rate for graduates in India is 29 percent. India’s youth unemployed is almost 83%, as per the India Employment Report 2024 jointly published by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute of Human Development (IHD). BJP had promised & guaranteed to provide 2 crore jobs every year, where are these jobs? They said they will give Rs 15 lakh to everyone. The price of an LPG cylinder, which was Rs 450 earlier, has also skyrocketed during BJP's tenure. The slow transition away from agricultural employment witnessed a reversal after 2019, with a notable rise in agricultural employment and a decline especially in manufacturing. India's manufacturing sector has fallen from over 51 million in 2016, by over 30 percent, to less than 36 million in 2023. Even with the push, the manufacturing sector for two continuous quarters have declined due to doubling of production costs. As a fraction of India’s economy, it is shrinking. Investment by Indian companies is not keeping pace. The money that companies put into the future of their businesses, for things like new machines and factories, is stagnant. Private investors say it still remains painfully slow to obtain legal judgments, let alone to enforce them. The GDP growth has come from electricity, cement, fertilizers, refinery, natural gas, due to cheap Russian crude energy; and farming has done high growth after the controversial farm law was rolled back. If you’re not the two A’s it can be treacherous to navigate India’s regulatory byways. The stocks of the two A’s company are worth about 6 times since 2015. Domestic investors feel a bit vulnerable. Banks are extending less credit to small businesses. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/no-takers-for-rupee-payment-for-oil-imports-11950721.html https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/no-takers-for-rupee-payment-for-oil-imports/106259302 The unemployment rate in urban areas is at 8% to 9.22%. The unemployment rate is the highest in Haryana at 34.5% followed by Rajasthan at 28.8%, Bihar at 21.1% and J&K at 15.6%. The high level of youth unemployment, despite a very low labour force participation, does not bode well for any country. 90 percent of Indian youth are unable to put a mathematical formula into a spreadsheet. The scourge of unemployment has led to the downfall of many empires, and has, in the past, given rise to worse scenarios, from violent protests, severe disharmony, to mass migration. https://fortune.com/asia/2024/03/30/young-people-india-more-likely-unemployed-if-educated-international-labour-organization/ https://www.ndtvprofit.com/business/adani-group-and-reliance-industries-sign-no-poaching-deal-report-3367693 https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/talent-hard-to-find-what-the-ambani-adani-no-poaching-pact-really-means-348149-2022-09-26 This drop in office workforce is due to dissatisfaction with the pay scale & burnout. In India, the issue is in the stark difference between the level of one’s education & the jobs that people get even after a tremendous struggle. Many youngsters are choosing the easier route of freelancing. This segment often relies on rental income & the pensions of older family members. Living with her parents, she saves on rent and other expenditures. The third thorn has been hidden when the Government has scrapped the National Statistical Office (NSO)'s household consumer expenditure survey for the first time in four decades, without moving fast enough to replace it with a new one. The official reason given is that Government plans to update/revolutionise the NSO's household consumer expenditure survey with better “data quality” by including OTT subscription, time spend online, online shopping, food orders from Zomato and Swiggy apps. But the fact is, real income per household has fallen, and the Government is shying away from taking responsibility. India's income poverty estimates and measured consumption in were last worked out in 2012. The irony is that the current government spends lakhs of crores of rupees on poverty programmes, but does not see merit in spending a few thousand crores of rupees to bring a universal household data collection system. Only when we have such an institutionalised system, when we regularly measure the actual status and intensity of poverty, when we design and deliver services to all the genuine poor, and when we monitor the outcomes of these interventions made, can we be in position to confidently talk about the real difference made to the extent and intensity of fighting poverty in India. According to UNDP, there were 270.7 million poor (around 16.4% of India's population) in 2021. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361384906_The_impact_of_unilateral_BIT_terminations_on_FDI_Quasi-experimental_evidence_from_India https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/business/indian-workforce-tops-burnout-survey-at-59/story https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-tops-in-workplace-burnout-survey-with-59-reporting-symptoms-mckinsey-health-institute-11698999238983.html
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/pm-modi-says-opposition-all-about-rate-card-for-jobs-his-govt-youths-safeguard-1227468.html At a time when the current Government is highlighting India as the largest democracy and a huge market for the World. The common excuse, in 2023, by this Government's ardent apologists on some media platforms, is that the rising high unemployment in India, it's the main fault is high population. They point out that if India had a lower population, say, like the population of Nepal or the India 70 years ago, then the present Government would have been able to provide good jobs for everyone. Then, by declaring that nobody has claimed, that they will bring down the rate of Unemployment in India to zero, they try to justify this Government's action/inaction. I feel every common Indian can see through and understand that this is pure propaganda using logical fallacy. The government had argued that during 2011-12 to 2015-16, the economy had expanded by 30%, while the pace of rise in Rs 500 notes was 76% and that of Rs 1000 notes was 109%. In counter, RBI said, “The growth rate of economy mentioned is the real rate, while growth in currency is nominal… Hence, the argument does not adequately support the recommendation.” “The making of economic policy in India tends to be opaque and non-consultative. What went on behind the scenes in several major policy decisions that I was involved in during my time in the finance ministry — such as electoral bonds, printing of Rs 2000 notes, the monetisation of six airports, the takeover of ILFS, the debate around minimum support price (MSP) for crops, the ‘raiding’ of RBI reserves, and so on.” Subhash Chandra Garghttps://www.ndtvprofit.com/opinion/2017/05/29/the-protesting-tamil-farmer-pays-for-the-up-farmers-loan-waiver Cabinet Okays ₹ 1 Lakh Crore To Create "World's Largest" Grain Storage Capacity In Cooperative Sector The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved a Rs 1 lakh crore programme to create a massive grain storage capacity in the cooperative sector to reduce crop damages and prevent distress sales by farmers, besides strengthening the country’s food security. The Government is planning to create 700 lakh tonne of grain storage capacity in the cooperative sector over the next five years and said the move will also help in creating job opportunities in rural India. Briefing media, Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Singh Thakur said the Cabinet has approved the “world’s largest grain storage plan in the cooperative sector”. On investment, he said the programme will start “with an expenditure of around Rs 1 lakh crore”. As per the plan, a godown of 2,000 tonne capacity will be established in each block. This will help in strengthening the cooperative sector, as Primary Agricultural Credit Societies (PACS) can diversify into the storage of food grains. PACS can function as procurement centres for state agencies/ Food Corporation of India (FCI) and serve as Fair Price Shops (FPS). There are 1 lakh PACS in the country, out of which around 63,000 are functional. Thakur said the country’s foodgrains production is around 3,100 lakh tonne, while the storage capacity is only 47 per cent of the total output. In developed economies, he said, the storage capacities are higher than output. Asked about the source of funding, Thakur said the funds available in Ministries of agriculture, food processing and food and consumer affairs would be utilised. At present, the total grain storage capacity in the country is about 1,450 lakh tonne, he said, adding that 700 lakh tonne storage capacity will now be established in the cooperative sector. This will take the total capacity to 2,150 lakh tonne. On benefits, the minister said the creation of decentralised storage capacity at the local level would reduce food grain wastage and strengthen the food security of the country. This would hugely reduce the cost incurred in the transportation of food grains to procurement centres and again transporting the stocks back from warehouses to ration shops, he said. According to an official statement, the Cabinet approved the Constitution and Empowerment of an Inter-Ministerial Committee (IMC) for the facilitation of the ‘world’s largest grain storage plan in Cooperative Sector’ by the convergence of various schemes of the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution and Ministry of Food Processing Industries. To ensure time-bound and uniform implementation of the plan, the Ministry of Cooperation will implement a pilot project in at least 10 selected districts of different states/ UTs in the country. The IMC will be constituted under the Chairmanship of the Minister of Cooperation, with the Minister of Agriculture, Minister of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Minister of Food Processing Industries and Secretaries concerned as members. The plan would be implemented by utilising the available outlays provided under the identified schemes of the respective ministries. In the Ministry of Agriculture, the schemes are the Agriculture Infrastructure Fund (AIF), Agricultural Marketing Infrastructure Scheme (AMI), Mission for Integrated Development of Horticulture (MIDH) and Sub Mission on Agricultural Mechanization (SMAM). The schemes identified under the Ministry of Food Processing Industries are the Pradhan Mantri Formalization of Micro Food Processing Enterprises Scheme (PMFME) and Pradhan Mantri Kisan Sampada Yojana (PMKSY). In the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, the programmes for the allocation of food grains under the National Food Security Act. "The plan is multi-pronged it aims to address not just the shortage of agricultural storage infrastructure in the country by facilitating the establishment of godowns at the level of PACS, but would also enable PACS to undertake various other activities. Through a whole-of-Government approach, the Plan would strengthen PACS by enabling them to diversify their business activities, thus enhancing the incomes of the farmer members as well," the statement said. https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2023/may/31/cabinet-okays-rs-1-lakh-crore-to-create-food-grain-storage-capacity-in-cooperative-sector-2580433.html https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/cabinet-approves-108-lakh-crore-fertiliser-subsidy-for-kharif-season/article66861500.ece With fertilizer prices continuing to remain high due to global factors — such as a fall in production and hiked logistics costs, especially due to the Ukraine situation — the Centre expects this year’s fertilizer subsidy to cross ₹2.25 lakh crore. Accordingly, the Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved a ₹1.08 lakh crore subsidy for the ongoing kharif or monsoon season, Fertilizers Minister Mansukh Mandaviya said. Out of this, ₹38,000 crore will subsidise phosphatic and potassic (P&K) fertilizers, while ₹70,000 crore will go toward the urea subsidy. At present, the subsidised rate of urea is ₹276 per bag and the price of DAP is ₹1,350 per bag. The fertilizer subsidy usually ranged between ₹1 lakh crore and ₹1.25 lakh crore. Last year, the total fertilizer subsidy was about ₹2.56 lakh crore. “We have 12 crore farmers and one farmer gets ₹21,223 subsidy.” the Minister added. The total consumption of urea in the country is about 325 to 350 lakh metric tonnes (LMT). Apart from this, 100 to 125 LMT of DAP; 100 to 125 LMT of NPK; and 50 to 60 LMT of Muriate of Potash (MoP) are also sold in the country. “Farmers should get fertilizers on time. They should not be burdened at a time international prices are high,” he said. “The rate of subsidy is based on the average price of fertilizer imported to the country in the last six months. We have to stock fertilizer so that farmers do not face any difficulties. We have adequate stocks of 150 LMT, which is available for kharif season,” he said The Yojana is for Programme for Restoration, Awareness, Nourishment and Amelioration of Mother Earth (PRANAM), urea scheme, and organic manure scheme. This allocation is over and above the recently approved Nutrient Based Subsidy phosphatic and potassic (P&K) fertilizers of ₹38,000 crore for 2023-24 Kharif season. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/cabinet-approves-pm-pranam-farmers-national-research-organisaiton-bill-8690654/ Nano fertilizers release nutrients in a controlled manner, contributing to higher nutrient use efficiency and while costing less to the farmers. “Nano urea plants will reduce our current import dependency in urea and finally make us self-sufficient by 2025- 26.” The Cabinet also introduced sulphur-coated urea (Urea Gold) to address the issue of sulphur deficiency of soil. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-16/dalio-warns-of-consequences-of-more-intense-china-us-friction
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/02/business/india-economy-foreign-direct-investment.html?referringSource=articleShare
Economic Survey of 2016-17: India's "growth is feeble, worse than it was in 1991 or indeed at any other point in the past three decades,". In India, what is holding up bank growth is the "second wave" of twin balance sheet problem. The trouble came to the fore only after the unexpected collapse of the NBFC behemoth IL&FS. It carried a debt of Rs 90,000 crore on its books. Much of the NBFC lending had been channelled to one particular sector, real estate. And that sector itself was in a precarious situation. Post the IL&FS crisis, the markets began taking note of the wider issues that plagued the shadow banking sector. By 2013, nearly one-third of corporate debt was owed by companies with an interest coverage ratio less than 1 (IC1 companies), many especially in the power infrastructure and metals sectors. Monetary policy cannot revive the economy because the transmission mechanism is broken. Fiscal policy cannot be used because the financial system would have difficulty absorbing the large bond issues that a stimulus would entail. The traditional structural reform agenda — land and labour market measures — will not address the current problems. Indian economy was growing fast, he said, India was yet underperforming. I think four ‘Rs’ are the answers. They are Recognition, Resolution, Recapitalisation and Reforms. Former Chief Economic Advisor CEA Arvind Subramanian said at the Annual Convention 2018 of Madras Management Association, in Chennai. https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/policy/story/ayushman-bharat-patients-shown-as-dead-getting-treatment-985-lakh-ab-pmjay-beneficiaries-linked-to-same-mobile-number-says-cag-report-393403-2023-08-09 https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2023/Aug/17/centre-denies-report-of-the-dead-availing-treatment-underayushman-bharat-scheme-2606174.html https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/data-stories/data-focus/from-fake-accounts-to-payments-to-dead-patients-cag-finds-serious-lapses-in-ayushman-bharat-implementation/article67198748.ece https://www.deccanherald.com/health/healthcare/rs-697-crore-was-paid-to-dead-patients-under-pmjay-cag-2649876
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